There’s palpable excitement around J.J. McCarthy.
The Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback of the future is showing out at OTAs and saying all the right things. In the short time fans got to see him on the field, he showed off his impressive arm strength and anticipation. After becoming the highest-drafted QB in team history, and following his disappointing injury last season, anticipation is building for McCarthy’s debut.
I’m not here to dampen any excitement, but practice does not indicate how well McCarthy will perform on Sundays, and fans might want to temper their expectations with a first-year starter coming off a meniscus tear.
Since he got drafted, all the talk around McCarthy has been about how Minnesota has set him up to succeed. The Vikings were considered one of the ideal landing spots for a rookie QB in 2024, and that narrative has only been amplified after they were active in free agency this offseason. This puts a lot of pressure on McCarthy to be “the guy” right away, when in reality he will need to work through some growing pains this season.
“Everyone wants to be perfect, especially at the quarterback position,” McCarthy said after Minnesota’s second practice. “The more you try to be perfect, it’s going to kill you more than your imperfections will.”
The Vikings built their roster to take pressure off their QB. They added to the offensive line, running backs, and wide receivers, so McCarthy doesn’t have to do all the heavy lifting. Instead, they’ve pivoted to a system that maximizes him as a game manager like he was at Michigan, where he went 27-1 as a starter.
That’s especially obvious with the defense. Upgrades to the defensive line, including signing Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, indicate a renewed philosophy for head coach Kevin O’Connell and staff. They may be trying to replicate McCarthy’s approach in college, as Michigan had the No. 1 defense in terms of points per game (10.4) on their way to a national championship his senior year.
The Vikings are also building a complementary run game around McCarthy. Trading for Jordan Mason and beefing up the offensive line means they will likely run the ball a lot more this season. Not only would this help the team become more rounded (t-18th in rushing yards last year), but it will also help McCarthy develop at his own pace and not have to play hero ball too often.
With security blankets in the form of Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, the recipe is there for McCarthy to succeed. Still, he’s a first-year starter who missed last season with an injury. There’s no telling what will happen when he finally takes the field.
Sitting out a year doesn’t guarantee greater success for a quarterback. There are names like Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady – surefire Hall of Famers who had to wait a year before getting their shot. There are also guys like Jake Locker, Chad Henne, and Trevor Siemian, who couldn’t capitalize after getting their opportunity.
Ultimately, there have been 16 quarterbacks since 2000 who had to wait until their second year to start. After taking over, they compiled a 63% completion percentage and a 90.7 QB rating. That’s not as good as those who waited until Year 3 (65.2%, 94.9 QBR) or Year 4 (63.7%, 92.9 QBR), but it’s better than the rookie quarterbacks who started in their first season.
These numbers come with a caveat: McCarthy is the first first-round QB to miss his entire rookie season due to injury. There’s no history to look back on to try and predict what he will do this year. The coaches seem to believe in him, considering they had a chance to sign Aaron Rodgers or another veteran QB if they had qualms about McCarthy. There’s also no reason to think “QB whisperer” O’Connell wouldn’t trust who he puts under center.
The Vikings likely would have sat McCarthy during his rookie season, regardless of whether he got hurt. With a year of development lost, this will essentially be his de facto rookie season. Therefore, he’ll probably put up rookie numbers.
Still, that doesn’t mean he can’t be great. The Washington Commanders took Jayden Daniels eight spots ahead of McCarthy, and he arguably had the best rookie season ever. He accounted for over 30 touchdowns and 4,400 yards, putting his name among the league’s best at the position.
However, Daniels’ rookie season is an outlier among first-year QBs. Washington reached the NFC Championship game, which is an unrealistic floor for McCarthy.
McCarthy’s supporting cast is great, but instead of using that to prematurely determine how good a quarterback he will be, we should just let the player play. The results will speak for themselves.
