The Minnesota Vikings’ offense seems to have hit its stride at the perfect time. They head into the division-altering showdown with the Detroit Lions coming off a seven-game stretch over which Sam Darnold has thrown 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Minnesota has ironed out its turnover issues, and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC has become a real possibility.
One more win this Sunday would make it 10 straight for Minnesota and secure them a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O’Connell is the personification of his offense this year: unrelenting aggression, unwavering confidence, and unflappable resiliency. The “next-snap” mentality O’Connell has preached is a microcosm of his “1-0 this week” mantra.
“Every minute, every hour we work, we know we’re chasing something special,” O’Connell said passionately after the team’s ninth win. “This is the most special group I’ve ever been around.”
The players feel it, the fanbase feels it, and national media is starting to come around.
Vikings’ Fastball vs. Detroit’s Defense
Minnesota’s offense had a strong outing last Sunday in the rematch against the Green Bay Packers, putting up 441 yards of total offense, 26 first downs, and 27 points. But it’s the way they did it that’s so encouraging. The Vikings’ offense is at its best when it can access long-developing route concepts via play action or straight seven-step drop.
Above all else, this requires quality pass protection, and Minnesota’s O-line put on an absolute clinic. While the Packers’ pass rush has been lackluster this season (22nd in pressure rate), the Vikings made it an absolute non-factor. Green Bay’s average time to pressure in this game was a whopping four seconds — on average. For context, the average time to throw allowed by the Packers this season is 2.8 seconds (15th in the NFL).
That bodes well for Minnesota against the Lions, who are missing their two best pass rushers: Aidan Hutchinson and the recently extended Alim McNeill. The remaining threats of the Detroit pass rush are Josh Paschal and old friend Za’Darius Smith, who has a 16.2% pressure rate on the season. We could see some fireworks if the Vikings can also hold up against this group as they did against Green Bay.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to play defense a certain way, and the injuries to his defense have not curtailed his commitment to it. Detroit plays man coverage at a league-high 40.4% rate despite losing Carlton Davis II, who they brought in for his man-coverage skillset. Detroit is 12th in expected points added (EPA) allowed in man coverage this season but ranks 24th in dropback success rate.
That’s a difficult strategy to get away with against Minnesota’s bevy of offensive weapons, which is why the Vikings have seen the second-lowest rate of man coverage (17.9%) this season. Over the last few meetings between these two teams, Detroit has stuck to that plan at the expense of some easy production from Justin Jefferson. Many teams have sold out to limit the league’s best receiver, but the Lions have chosen to live with big-time Jefferson performances and play the receivers straight up.
Detroit won the first matchup this season despite seven receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown for JJ. However, former Lion T.J. Hockenson missed the game. With Hockenson back for this one, another Pro Bowl-caliber alternative target will be available to the offense.
The Lions may lean into more blitzes to try and heat the Vikings up in this one. They are currently eighth in the NFL in overall pass-blitz rate (37%) and blitz even more often (48.9%) in front of their man coverages. They are 13th in overall pressure rate on the season, but that is buoyed by Aidan Hutchinson’s early-season production. He has been in the bottom third of the league since he went down with injury.
The Vikings could also take advantage of Detroit’s propensity for base defense. Detroit trots out base personnel (four defensive backs) at 45.5%, the highest rate in the league by nearly 9%, and twice as often as league average.
Whether the Lions match the Vikings 12p/21p (two receivers) or their 11 personnel (three receivers), the Vikings will have some answers. The Vikings align in 12- or 21-personnel on first and second down at a top-five rate in the league and are dangerous out of these packages. Whether it is C.J. Ham or Josh Oliver on the field, these packages add an excellent blocker to the protection plan. Minnesota runs play action at the sixth-highest rate in the league and will generate explosive plays against these groupings if the offensive line can hold up as it did last week.
Detroit also occasionally matches 11 personnel with base defense, which presents a huge speed advantage for the Vikings. These situations will allow O’Connell to matchup-hunt with his playcalling by moving Jefferson into the slot or motioning presnap to stress Detroit’s linebackers, who have struggled with injuries this season.
When It Counts: KOC vs. Aaron Glenn
Through all of the injuries to the defensive side of the ball for Detroit, its run defense has remained solid. Defensive tackles D.J. Reader and Levi Onwuzurike, as well as linebacker Jack Campbell, have mostly been healthy and effective. Detroit’s rushing success rate allowed is fourth best in the league at just 28.3%.
The Vikings are 25th in rushing success rate on the season at 39.3%. As big an advantage as Minnesota’s offense will have in the passing game, they will need to beat the odds in the run game to control the clock and keep the ball away from Jared Goff and the Lions offense.
If they can’t, which is a strong possibility, much of this game will come down to Minnesota’s ability to convert on third down. Over each of their last five games, the Vikings are converting 43.1% of their third downs, while Detroit is allowing a 41.7% conversion rate (including two games against the 4-12 Chicago Bears).
Minnesota may still have the advantage if the Lions’ run defense holds up and can force third-and-longs. The Vikings are sixth in the league in EPA/play on third-and-seven-plus, while Detroit’s defense ranks ninth. While they have done well to stymie conversions, they are giving up the 13th-most yards per pass in these situations.
When the rubber meets the road on Sunday night, we will see just how prepared both teams are for the rematch. Will Aaron Glenn have a curveball for KOC or stay true to his season-long identity? Can Minnesota poke some holes in Detroit’s running defense? Or will they need to air it out to keep pace?
Either way, we are days away from the most consequential regular-season games in NFL history. Undoubtedly, both coaching staffs will have their teams ready to go to war for the division, the conference, and a shorter path to the Super Bowl.
