In a July 2022 USA Today interview, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah gave one of his most in-depth, behind-the-scenes looks at how he views team building. He explained how he views player acquisition — “decision science,” he called it — and how it drives decision making. His close friend and mentor, Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry, shared how Adofo-Mensah attacked the draft room when he worked under Berry.
“(Adofo-Mensah) would always push that we have to be humble in terms of we’re making an educated guess,” Berry said. “These are all bets. We don’t really know. That, quite honestly, has allowed us to be a little more flexible on draft day because of that uncertainty.”
Adofo-Mensah’s philosophy aligns with his background. He has an economics degree from Princeton and worked as a day trader on Wall Street before joining the NFL in 2013. Working on Wall Street requires analysis and projection, and the value of a stock may not be realized overnight.
If Berry says Adofo-Mensah viewed players as bets in his two years in Cleveland, he is likely taking the same approach in Minnesota, using his Wall Street background to build the team. That means not every player will work out, and others may not contribute for a year or two.
That may be hard for fans to hear. If we have a bad take regarding a player signing in free agency or someone the Vikings drafted, the worst that will usually happen is that our friends make fun of us for it. But an NFL team missing on a player? That can lead to a perception that takes years for decision-makers to overcome.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone 34-17 since Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell arrived in 2022. They’ve made the playoffs twice, thanks to contributions from players like Sam Darnold, Harrison Phillips, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel. These players, among others, were acquired in 2022 or later.
Free-agent acquisition is part of Adofo-Mensah’s “portfolio.” When signing free agents, projections are still involved, including how well a player can fit into a scheme. Players’ histories in the league make it easier to project future success. Their strengths and weaknesses in the NFL are on full display.
Signing them gets complicated because they are free agents, meaning other teams are bidding for their services. Most teams can identify the best players, but do they have the money to sign them? And at what point is a player too expensive to pursue, regardless of their talent?
The team has also made bets on when to move on from known commodities like Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Eric Kendricks, and Danielle Hunter. That also requires projection. A good GM releases a player before their performance doesn’t match the value of their contract.
These two parts of team building are crucial because so much of the salary cap is allocated to veterans. In 2024, fans feared the future without Cousins and Hunter. Cousins, who was turning 36 when the 2024 season began, signed a four-year, $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons. Hunter, who turned 30 during the season, signed a two-year, $49 million contract with the Houston Texans.
The Vikings replaced them with Sam Darnold, 27, at one-year, $10 million, and Greenard, 27, at four years, $76 million. Although Adofo-Mensah was betting the players would hit, he knew there was less risk of missing on Darnold at a cheaper contract than keeping Cousins at a much more lucrative contract. Atlanta ended up benching Cousins at the end of the 2024 season. Hunter still had 66 pressures in 2024, good for seventh in the NFL. Still, it trailed the younger Greenard’s 80, which ranked third.
The New York Jets drafted Darnold third overall in 2018, but he had never realized his potential in the NFL. However, after a year with Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers, the Vikings believed they could use Darnold as a bridge quarterback for whichever rookie they drafted. Darnold started the entire year, made the Pro Bowl, and is now looking at a contract that could pay him at least $25 million.
Still, would the Vikings be willing to make the so-called safe play with Darnold, keeping him and trying to replicate his 2024 performance? He wilted in the biggest games of the year, and flaws that were forgivable on a $10 million contract aren’t as easy to look past on a $30 million deal.
Once again, Adofo-Mensah could be looking to get out from Darnold before it’s too late.
Like a good portfolio, the Vikings could allocate the assets freed up by getting out of the Cousins contract by addressing other roster holes. Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman were the other two big free-agency splashes. They also signed defensive end Jerry Tillery, another former first-round pick, to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. Tillery played all 17 games for the Vikings, starting 11.
Despite the team’s success, Adofo-Mensah hasn’t escaped the reputation of drafting poorly. People immediately scrutinized his 2022 draft class when the team traded down from pick No. 12 to pick No. 32, where they drafted safety Lewis Cine. He only got on the field for 10 defensive snaps in two seasons in Minnesota, and the Vikings released him before the 2024 season.
Other players from the class included cornerback Andrew Booth, guard Ed Ingram, and linebacker Brian Asamoah. The Vikings traded Booth before the 2024 season and benched Ingram halfway through it. Asamoah is primarily a special teams player.
The Vikings drafted Jordan Addison in 2023. However, he’s the only player in three drafts who has consistently impacted the team. But does that mean the 2025 draft is the one that decides Adofo-Mensah’s fate as a talent evaluator?
Every team covets draft picks. However, someone with Adofo-Mensah’s background may view them as an even more valuable commodity. Their age and skillsets can lead to unlimited potential, and rookie contracts are incredibly team-friendly for three to four years.
Still, finding them is tricky. That’s why guys like Tom Brady get drafted in the sixth round. Patrick Mahomes was the 10th-overall pick. Josh Allen went seventh overall. If everyone knew how good players these players would be, none of them would have made it past the first pick.
J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus tear in the team’s first preseason game, but he will likely be the team’s starting quarterback in 2025 and beyond. Even if he hadn’t suffered the injury, Adofo-Mensah’s investment in Darnold gave the Vikings short-term security in case the rookie wasn’t ready to start in 2024.
But unlike Darnold in 2024, if McCarthy has a successful season in 2025, his contract won’t skyrocket in 2026. If he proves he’s a franchise quarterback, the Vikings could extend him after the 2028 season without having to outbid other teams. Hitting on a quarterback in the draft is like buying an Amazon stock 20 years ago. A share was worth $1.79 on Feb. 7, 2005. It closed on Feb. 5, 2025 at $236.17.
The Vikings could have the same thing with Dallas Turner, who played 302 snaps in 2024. Like McCarthy, Turner was behind veterans Greenard and Van Ginkel. While the Vikings have locked Greenard in for the foreseeable future, Van Ginkel will be 30 when the 2025 season begins. That means Turner could find even more playing time in 2025, realizing his potential in future seasons, even if it doesn’t mean getting instant gratification with Rookie of the Year awards.
That doesn’t mean that Adofo-Mensah will have a great draft this year. It doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll replicate his phenomenal free-agent success in 2024, as past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But it means he’s built the Vikings up through different avenues so the team can survive and improve, even if one aspect of team-building has been lacking for several years.
In one of the best scenes from the 2013 movie The Wolf Of Wall Street, Jordan Belfort, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, explains Stratton-Oakmont’s business strategy to his workers. While on the phone with a potential client, Belfort says to the client, “By the time you’ve read about it in the Wall Street Journal, it’s already too late.”
The equivalent to this in Adofo-Mensah’s world would be, “By the time you’ve seen this player on SportsCenter, it’s already too late.” His job is to make the not-so-easy decision to sign, draft, or cut players before it’s evident to every spectator, scout, and coach.
But Adofo-Mensah believes he can make those decisions better than most, even if he knows batting 1.000 isn’t possible.
“I believe in decision science and our abilities,” Adofo-Mensah said in 2022. “I don’t believe that I can pick the next Pat Mahomes that much better than anybody. If you give me five chances, I think we’d be better and we’d get four out of five rather than (others’) three out of five. But one shot, your odds are at best 65%.”
Like any investor, Adofo-Mensah must learn from his mistakes to help him find and realize his next great investment.
