The Minnesota Vikings’ worst performance of the 2024 season came in their biggest game. It triggered memories Vikings fans hoped to stave off for at least another couple of weeks. However, that same game also gave fans some reasons for optimism going into a rematch with the Los Angeles Rams.
While it was a beatdown by the time the clock struck zero, the final score doesn’t properly reflect how close the game felt for the first three quarters. As is the case with most NFL games, this one could have swung on a few key plays. However, it wasn’t clock-management decisions or blown calls by the refs (there were a few).
It was all lack of execution.
Kevin O’Connell called a solid game and consistently schemed receivers open, but Darnold missed several throws. If the Vikings had executed the way they had in the preceding weeks, several plays would have completely changed the game’s complexion.
Sam Probably Won’t Play Worse
With just over 10 minutes to go in the second quarter, Minnesota’s offense lined up to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the three-yard line. Justin Jefferson motions from the right side of the formation to the left side, which indicates man coverage with him isolated and plenty of end zone to work with. On the opposite side, Jordan Addison opens up early on an out route, but it looked like an “out and up,” so the throw would have needed to come out immediately.
Ultimately, Darnold was right to turn his eyes to Jefferson as he won his “zig” or “return” route. He faked inside and broke outside to create separation, and Darnold missed the throw high, just out of JJ’s reach. Instead of a touchdown, it’s Detroit’s football.
It felt like every throw was high, even passes that Darnold puts in a shoebox nine times out of 10. Darnold missed nearly as many throws in one game as he had all season. His 43% completion rate was a season-low and a far cry from his 66% mark overall in 2024. Darnold hasn’t been missing these throws. Even if he still flubs a few, we can assume at least some progression to the mean in that department. And, for what it’s worth, he didn’t have a turnover in this game.
The Rams Play A Different Style of Defense
Aaron Glenn’s willingness to send the house was a unique plan against Minnesota’s offense. Per NFL Pro, the Detroit Lions blitzed on 23 of Darnold’s 43 dropbacks. Fourteen of those were cover-zero blitzes. That’s an unhinged amount of cover zero, but it worked. Darnold was six of 14 on those dropbacks.
Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula would have to abandon what’s worked for them this season to replicate that plan. L.A.’s defense ranks 28th in man-coverage rate (18.7%) and 27th in EPA/allowed when playing man coverage. They run cover 0 at the league’s ninth-lowest rate (3.3%). Detroit’s blitz played a huge role and gave Darnold and the offensive line a difficult time, but it’s unlikely that the Vikings will see anything like it against Los Angeles.
The amount of pressure the Rams generated was one of the main reasons they beat Minnesota in Week 8. Most of that stemmed from the loss of Christian Darrisaw just before halftime. Things will be different this time around. Cam Robinson and Dalton Risner have since replaced David Quessenberry and Ed Ingram, and the O-line has looked great (for the most part) since. Star rookie rusher Jared Verse might make some big plays, but he will not find a consistent mismatch on the outside between Robinson and Brian O’Neill this time.
Darnold and his offensive line have had some of their best games against teams with similar defensive philosophies. The Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, and San Francisco 49ers want to rush four and play solid zone coverage behind it.
If the Rams stick to what they’ve done this season, we’ll see a lot of Cover 3, which they run at the league’s seventh-highest rate (42.1%) per MatchQuarters. Darnold has picked defenses apart when given time to allow routes to develop downfield. The Lions forced Darnold into a 3.3 yards per attempt, less than half his 8.2 ypa on the year, but the Rams may not be able to do the same thing.
The Run Game Was Working
Cam Akers and Aaron Jones combined for 16 carries for 110 yards (6.9 YPC) and probably could’ve been relied on more in hindsight. Coming off that performance against a stout Detroit run defense has got to feel good going into L.A. The Rams’ defense ranks 26th in yards per rush, 24th in EPA/rush, and 28th in stuff rate.
Jones is likely to play but has been battling a quad injury, so he may be splitting touches with Akers, who had perhaps the biggest offensive play of the day for the Vikings with his 58-yard scamper. If the Vikings can establish the run early on in this game, they’ll be able to control time of possession and the flow of the game while also lulling the defense to set up the big shot plays that O’Connell so adores.
The Vikings have a lot to clean up. Still, there’s nothing they’ll need to do on Monday in Arizona that we haven’t seen them do repeatedly this season. O’Connell faces old friend Sean McVay, whose team is always tough to deal with on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Shula’s defense is fast but inexperienced.
The Vikings are the superior team. They just need to bounce back and prove it.
