For the first time this season, Kevin O’Connell will get to see a high-flying offense featuring a quarterback with a big arm throwing to the most productive receiver in football. Complementing that will be a defense that ranks tied for fifth in EPA allowed per play, seventh in total yards allowed, and seventh in points allowed.
Unfortunately for O’Connell, that team will be wearing navy and action green.
The Seattle Seahawks are 8-3, fielding the team the Minnesota Vikings envisioned they were building last offseason. Sam Darnold leads the NFL in yards per completion (9.3) and yards per attempt (13.5). Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with 1,313 yards and is on pace to become the first receiver in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards. And the defense is a terror, with interior defensive linemen Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams leading the team with six sacks apiece.
It’d be painful enough to see them have this kind of success with Darnold one season after he led the Vikings to a 14-3 record, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. But Minnesota is 4-7 in large part because of its inept passing attack that ranks 28th in total yards.
Minnesota’s offense has been a mess in six games with J.J. McCarthy. They eclipsed 300 yards once, a 365-yard effort in a 27-19 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The passing game has averaged 163.4 yards per game in his six starts, which would rank third-worst in the league.
McCarthy also threw at least one interception in each start, offering evidence for why O’Connell constantly emphasizes the team’s exceptional 34-5 record when winning the turnover battle. And, perhaps worst of all, McCarthy is set to miss his sixth game of the year after entering the concussion protocol on Monday. It’s his second injury this season, after he missed his entire rookie campaign with a torn meniscus.
The passing game wasn’t great under Carson Wentz, who threw for 1,216 yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions in five starts. But he was allowing the offense to function at a baseline level, completing 65.1% of his passes. Minnesota averaged 233 passing yards in Wentz’s five starts, which would rank 10th in the NFL if he maintained that average over the entire season.
Minnesota’s lack of a passing game is also affecting Justin Jefferson, who is publicly saying all the right things despite having the worst statistical season of his career. He has caught 60 passes for 795 yards, which still ranks eighth in the league, but has only two touchdowns. Jefferson has gone six straight games without reaching 100 yards, a mark he has only exceeded twice this season (both with Wentz under center).
Jefferson is averaging roughly 72.3 yards per game, which isn’t bad for most receivers and is 10 yards above the 61.9-yard average from WR1s across the league. Still, it’s well below his NFL-record 93.5 receiving yard average over his career, and he entered the season averaging 96.5. Jefferson hasn’t publicly criticized the situation yet, but could that change Sunday when he witnesses the NFL’s most productive receiver playing for the opposing team?
Defensively, the Vikings have been good enough to win, but far from the dominant force they believed they could be when they added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in March. The veteran defensive tackles were supposed to give the Vikings the kind of interior pass rush that the Seahawks have.
Allen and Hargrave appeared to make Harrison Phillips expendable. However, they haven’t pressured quarterbacks (43 combined pressures and 5.5 sacks) and aren’t as consistent in stopping the run. The Vikings are tied for 19th in EPA allowed per run (-0.03) after ranking first in 2024 (-0.17) and tied for 13th in 2023 (-0.10) despite lacking star power.
The Vikings rank 11th in total yards allowed and 18th in points allowed. That’s adequate defense, and perhaps a more productive offensive attack would help force opposing teams into riskier approaches.
Minnesota’s defense has nine takeaways this season, which is tied for 27th in the league. But even that’s become misleading. The Vikings have only forced two turnovers since their Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, where they had five takeaways.
Entering the season, the Vikings believed that O’Connell, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, Wes Phillips, and other offensive coaches could help guide McCarthy to success. A talented set of skill-position players, featuring Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones, should help McCarthy thrive. The defense should overwhelm opponents, giving the offense a low bar to clear in points scored while also continuing to take the ball away after forcing a league-high 33 turnovers.
The Vikings fell short in all of these areas, but it may not have ever mattered. Even if McCarthy were effective on the field, his inability to stay on it could cause consternation about his future.
While O’Connell said the Vikings couldn’t pinpoint the exact time McCarthy suffered his concussion, he took a brutal hit with five minutes remaining in last Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers when he chose to fight for extra yards instead of going down to protect himself. When the ball is kicked off on Sunday in Seattle, McCarthy will have missed 23 of 29 potential starts to begin his career.
Max Brosmer could pull off the upset on Sunday in place of McCarthy. But even if he did, it would be impossible not to wonder why they let Darnold leave the building.
It’s like trading in a fun but used convertible because you are worried about its long-term sustainability for a brand-new car. Only, you have to drive back to the lot because the new car had a recall. Then, shortly after you’re told it’s ready to pick up, the engine stalls two blocks away.
Slumped in the driver’s seat, you look out the window to see the new owner of your old convertible speed by, top down, as he has his arm slung around his girlfriend. It only reminds you that your own girlfriend left you three weeks ago because she was sick of sharing a rental while your car gets fixed.
Darnold has a chance to show off his new ride to the Vikings, spinning the tires around O’Connell and Co. as their 2025 season gets dealt its final blow. The Vikings may wonder how they got here until they look in the rearview mirror and find their answer.
