The Minnesota Vikings didn’t get much production from their two first-round picks in 2024. J.J. McCarthy missed the entire season with a meniscus injury, and they relegated Dallas Turner to a backup role behind Pro Bowlers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard.
It wasn’t just the lack of production that stung. The Vikings traded significant draft capital to acquire the two players. They moved up one spot with the New York Jets to get McCarthy, trading away their first-round pick (11th overall), fourth-round pick (129), and fifth-round (157) picks, receiving two picks, 10th and 203rd overall, in return.
Getting Turner was a steeper price. Weeks before the draft, the Vikings first sent their second-round pick (42), sixth-round pick (188), and a 2025 second-round pick to the Houston Texans to acquire another first-round pick. The Vikings received Houston’s first-round pick (23) and seventh-round pick (232).
On draft night, the Vikings traded pick 23, a fifth-round pick (167), a 2025 third-round pick, and a 2025 fourth-round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for pick 17. They selected Turner, who was only the third defensive player taken in that draft. No defender was taken until pick 15, pushing the coveted Turner down and into striking range for Minnesota.
There was much speculation on the hefty price. Many draft picks had been exchanged to acquire two players. Still, how much did the trades cost the Vikings when we quantified the value of each pick?
According to the Rich Hill trade chart, the Vikings got good value for McCarthy. The 11th, 129th, and 157th picks they sent to the Jets were a combined 386 points on the chart. In return, the 10th and 203rd picks netted 374 points. The nine-point difference is the equivalent of a fifth-round pick. Even if some fans believed the Vikings still could have landed McCarthy at pick 11, the trade up prevented other quarterback-needy teams from leapfrogging them and robbing them of a potential franchise QB.
The Vikings moved up from pick 42 to pick 17 to get Turner. Minnesota gave up 568 points in the two trades. Ultimately, the Vikings received 298 points. That 270-point difference is the equivalent of the 20th pick (269 points) and a late seventh-round pick (one point).
Still, the Vikings have their first-round pick in 2025, selecting 24th overall. Because they finished 7-10 in 2023, they didn’t have to move up as far to acquire McCarthy and Turner. That’s not news to anyone who follows the draft, but it stands out because the Vikings have lost nine total games in their other two seasons combined under Kevin O’Connell.
Minnesota selected 23rd overall in the 2023 draft after going 13-4. When Kirk Cousins went down with an Achilles injury in 2023, the Vikings had won three-straight games and were 4-4. They won their next two games without Cousins. Even with subpar quarterback play, they were in position to win several games down the stretch that could have put them in the playoffs. That would mean the Vikings picked no earlier than 19th overall in 2024.
The difference between the 11th and 19th overall picks is 80 points on the Rich Hill chart. That’s the equivalent of the 64th-overall pick. The 2025 second-round pick to acquire Turner was worth 98 points. A trade from pick 19 to 10 to secure McCarthy and leapfrog the Denver Broncos would have cost 91 points alone.
Moving from pick 42 to 17 is 155 points, the equivalent of the 39th-overall pick and a mid-seventh-round pick. Still, Turner was only the third defender taken off the board. In most years, that means the defender is a top-10 pick.
If he had gone when originally projected, around 10, and the Vikings finished 19th in the draft order, they would have had to cover 257 points to move up from pick 51 (19th pick in the second round) to 10 to get their second first-round pick. That move would be the equivalent of the 22nd pick and a late sixth-rounder.
That likely meant moving on from the 2025 first-round pick and another pick on top of what the Vikings already gave up to acquire Turner on draft night. But would they have had the requisite capital to pull off such a move if they had to trade up from 19 to draft McCarthy?
The 2024 draft class is widely recognized as being more top-heavy with talent than this year’s group. If McCarthy and Turner had come out this year, they likely would have been even hotter commodities.
Last year, NFL.com gave Turner a 6.72 prospect grade. That would be the fifth-highest grade in this year’s class, including Ashton Jeanty, a running back, and two tight ends, who play positions less coveted than edge rushers.
NFL.com gave McCarthy a 6.40 prospect grade, ever-so-slightly ahead of Miami quarterback Cam Ward (6.39), who is projected to go first-overall this year. There are other quarterback-needy teams in the top six picks of the draft, but the consensus is that there is a big drop between Ward and the projected second quarterback, Shedeur Sanders. At worst, McCarthy would be a top-three pick in this draft, potentially No. 1.
Minnesota’s 24th-overall pick is worth 237 points. The Tennessee Titans own the first overall pick, which is worth 1,000 points. Second overall is worth 717, and third is worth 514. Even if the Vikings wanted to trade away their entire future to move up to those spots to get McCarthy, would those quarterback-needy teams like the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants even entertain the offer?
Moving up for McCarthy, trading away multiple first- and second-round picks, would take them out of position of acquiring Turner. Fans may believe the Vikings wasted the Turner pick because of the success of Greenard and Van Ginkel, but Turner is still only 22. Van Ginkel will be 30 when the season begins, and Minnesota only has him signed through 2025. If the Vikings make a championship run, acquiring a prospect of Turner caliber would be nearly impossible next year.
Were the trades of 2024 steep? Yes. Did the Vikings get an immediate return on their investment? No. But, like many investments, sometimes these things take time to realize their potential. Buying low doesn’t always pay off, but buying low can help maximize returns.
Because the Vikings got what they hope are franchise cornerstones at quarterback and edge rusher, they believe they got exceptional value for great prospects. So even if they cost a little extra to secure at the time of the transaction, the Vikings got potential difference-makers at premium positions at a discounted price.
