The Minnesota Vikings were one of the best regular-season teams in the league. They consistently delivered on high-leverage plays with a high-risk approach. Their deep, long-developing passing game and mad-scientist defensive scheme are strengths many good teams couldn’t access.
However, explosiveness is not the common denominator between the two conference champions. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs have succeeded by prioritizing the trenches on both sides of the ball. You could argue that eight of the 12 best players in Super Bowl LIX play on the offensive or defensive line. Pro Bowlers and All-Pros like Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Chris Jones for Kansas City; Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson, Jordan Mailata, and Jalen Carter for Philadelphia.
The path to the Super Bowl is paved by more than the acquisition of All-Pros. Philadelphia and K.C. have arrived at these situations due to their organizational philosophies and keen sense of how the league is trending. As defenses have shifted to more two-high safety structures, largely to contend with the 2018 to 2020 iteration of the Chiefs, many of the best offenses have become more conservative, punishing lighter boxes with the run and quick passing game.
As those offenses have shifted to more quick, low-risk passing, the ability to generate interior pressure has become a requisite part of great defenses.
The Vikings haven’t drafted an interior defensive lineman in the first three rounds since Sharrif Floyd in 2013. 2013! They have cobbled together the position group with middle-of-the-road free agents, which has hurt them lately. While Kansas City has supplemented its pass rush around a game-wrecking force like Chris Jones, who can play all over the defensive line, Philadelphia has continued to invest in the interior offensive line through the draft, selecting at least one defensive lineman in the first three rounds in three of the last four drafts.
Philly and K.C.’s D-lines have driven much of their defensive success this season.
Both groups accounted for over 100 total pressures and unlocked many things for their respective play-callers. Meanwhile, Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Bullard, and Jerry Tillery combined for only 38 total pressures, which passes the eye test. That deficiency made it very difficult for Minnesota to succeed in rushing four, thus presenting coverage disadvantages when they did send five or six. Philly’s Milton Williams and K.C.’s Tershawn Wharton logged over 30 individual pressures each this season, and both will be available in free agency.
The interior offensive line is the other side of this coin. The Vikings boast one of the best offensive tackle duos in football but have not been able to round out the interior. They’ve tried multiple college tackles at guard and spent a first and second-round pick on Garrett Bradbury and Ed Ingram, respectively. While Bradbury has been solid, neither has made a significant impact.
Kansas City has had success in the inverse. They’ve had the best interior trio in football over the past few seasons, and that has proven to set a higher floor for their offense. KC’s 2021 second-round pick, Creed Humphrey, has become the best center in football. They took Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith in the sixth round of the same draft, and the Chiefs spent big money to bring in left guard Joe Thuney.
Philadelphia has spared no expense filling out the student body of offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland’s “Stoutland University.” The team has made a habit of addressing needs a year early, leading to a seamless transition from Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce to the 2022 second-round pick Cam Jurgens. Like Kelce and Garrett Bradbury, Jurgens is a smaller, athletic center who occasionally struggles to anchor in pass protection. Philadelphia has remedied this by flanking Kelce and Jurgens with massive mauling guards. Landon Dickerson (6’6”, 335 lbs.) and Mekhi Benton (6’7”, 360 lbs.) pack enough punch to insulate Jurgens on the interior.
Both strategies have led to Kansas City and Philadelphia boasting consistent, high-floor running games that set their passing games up for success. For this reason, the Vikings faced an inordinate number of third-and-longs. However, they won 14 games in the regular season because those situations required the deep passing concepts at which Minnesota excelled.
Philly had the second-highest explosive run (10-plus yards) rate in the league this season, and Kansas City had the fewest explosive runs of any team. However, the Eagles and Chiefs had a top-10 rushing success rate. Rushing success rate is calculated within the context of the down and distance. A successful play is defined as gaining at least half of the first-down yardage on first and second down. For example, a gain of four yards on second-and-six would be charted as a successful play. On third and fourth down, a successful run results in a first down.
The Vikings ranked 26th in overall rushing success rate and 21st in first-down success rate, which sets the table for the rest of the series. Both conference champions finished in the top 10 in both metrics. The Eagles had the best running back in football, and the Chiefs had the least explosive running game in the NFL. Still, both teams ran the ball consistently enough to win in January.
Plenty of teams play indoors, but there were multiple snow games in the playoffs, which required a more earthbound attack. The construction of Super Bowl participants isn’t always replicable or predictive. Still, strength in the offensive and defensive interior have always been core tenets of successful football teams. That was certainly the case this season, even if you zoom out to the rest of the playoff teams.
The Vikings are not that far away. Sean McVay is Kevin O’Connell’s mentor, and he transformed the Los Angeles Rams offense over the last two seasons into a diverse, power-running game after spending several seasons chasing the dangling carrot of a deep completion like Minnesota did last year.
Minnesota must commit to transforming its offense and receive strong assessments from talent evaluators in the pro and college scouting departments. The best teams in the league eat an elephant one bite at a time. The Vikings must make an identity shift and corresponding personnel decisions to join the NFL’s elite.