After the Minnesota Twins collapsed last year, this year’s team is still looking for answers after going 13-18 in the first month of the season.
Rocco Baldelli is an analytically-minded manager who has won AL Manager of the Year and three division titles since the Twins hired him in 2019. However, many fans have blamed him for last season’s collapse and this season’s lackluster start.
How much of Minnesota’s slow start is on Baldelli? And can he avoid being the fall guy if it becomes a lost season?
Baldelli won 101 games in his first year as Twins manager, and they won a playoff series in his fifth season. Minnesota won 100 games under Baldelli for the first time since 1965, when Sam Mele managed Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva, who were 26, and 29-year-old Harmon Killebrew.
Baldelli has proven he can win with the right tools. However, have the Twins equipped him with enough to win this year?
When the Twins were in the playoff chase last year, people thought they would be buyers at the deadline.. They could use experience and depth, especially at starting pitching, to help propel this team across the finish line to their second straight playoff berth.
Instead, the Twins stood pat, only grabbing reliever Trevor Richards from the Blue Jays at the July 30 deadline. Failing to add quality depth and not being aggressive during the deadline may have deflated the clubhouse.
From August 25 to the end of last season, the Twins had only won ten games, effectively ending their season. They went 10-23 and missed the playoffs after having a 90% chance to make it in August.
This year, they have started 13-18. ESPN gave them a 52% chance of making the postseason, but they aren’t looking like a playoff team.
The Chicago White Sox are the only team with a worse stretch. Since the Twins hired Baldelli, the team has had six different managers.
Minnesota responded to the collapse by making meaningful changes.
An ownership dilemma has embroiled the Twins, and they still have less payroll than two years ago. However, Minnesota brought in new hitting coaches, replacing David Popkins and his staff with Matt Borgschulte and two more hitting coaches. They made the changes in response to the Twins only scoring 5+ runs in eight of the 2024 season’s final 33 games.
So far, that revamping has worked. In the first month of the season, the Twins have scored 5+ runs in 12 of the first 31 games.
The Twins are hitting, but the baseball gods aren’t helping. Minnesota is in the bottom third in batting average and on-base percentage. However, they are in the top five in average and average with balls in play (BABIP), with runners in scoring position this year, metrics that show that the team ended in the bottom third of last season.
That shows that once the Twins get on base, they successfully bring runners in to score.
Now that the offense seems to be turning it around, why have they lost so often at the beginning of the season?
Let’s look at bullpen pitching.
The Twins have underperformed their projected value for a bullpen that was expected to be one of the best in the league this season.
Minnesota’s bullpen has gone 4-9 in games where it determined the outcome. That doesn’t include games in which the Twins were already losing when the bullpen came in to try to finish a game.
Griffin Jax‘s early struggles highlight this issue. Although he has seemed dialed back in lately, it’s hard to forget his 10-day run, during which he was 0-2 with an ERA over 10.00. He also has the team’s worst opponent batting average, with teams hitting .315 against him.
That being said, three Twins pitchers currently have an ERA over 5.00, two of them in the bullpen. Jax (7.50) and Jorge Alcala (7.94) are over 5.00, and Chris Paddack has a 5.60 ERA.
With their pitching woes, why have the Twins been reluctant to bring in help?
Baldelli can only manage the roster the Twins give him and only has so much say about offseason and deadline transactions. It is up to the owners and upper management to go out and get those players and effectively pay them what they are worth to this ball club.
When you have an ownership group that is, for lack of a better term, “thrifty” with their money, you get guys like Paddack in the rotation. Although he’s an asset to the team, he has an extensive injury history, including two Tommy John surgeries.
Minnesota’s injury issues have left Baldelli shorthanded this year. They’ve had to play games without dynamic players such as Paddack, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Pablo López. That affects the depth and how he manages games on a nightly basis.
Although injuries are a part of the game, the Twins seem to have been unfortunate when it comes to big-name players getting injured at inopportune times.
One must expect that if a player is even at 50%, they will want to play. If Baldelli is holding guys out day-to-day, trying to save players from hurting themselves more, that can be placed on the manager. However, he has no control over whether his players get injured or the timelines the medical staff sets.
If the fans are happy with Minnesota’s roster, it’s only natural to blame Baldelli’s in-game decisions. However, suppose fans are unhappy with the roster and believe this team is missing players in crucial roles or depth. Then, upper management and ownership are more at fault for Minnesota’s slow start.
To cool off his hot seat, Baldelli must display strong game management skills and maximize Minnesota’s roster. Unfortunately, even then, Baldelli might be the scapegoat for the team’s payroll cuts after making the playoffs two years ago.
