Not many fans like to see their favorite team selling at the trade deadline. Fewer people like selling fan favorite, All-Star caliber players. And zero enjoy it when the player in question is 27 and throws 100 miles per hour.
However, that’s the reality for Minnesota Twins fans when the team finally shipped out a major piece of their core. Jhoan Duran and his fireballing, worm-killing arm — not to mention his career 2.47 ERA — is out the door and headed to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Closer of the Future is now the Closer of the Past.
In return, the Twins get a suitable centerpiece in Eduardo Tait, a slugging catcher in High-A ball, as well as a 6-foot-5 power pitcher in Mick Abel. According to Fangraphs, Tait and Abel came into the season ranked fourth and 13th in Philadelphia’s system.
Will these players be good? Who knows? Prospects are one of the few inexact sciences left in baseball, and quantity is usually the only way to guarantee quality for any farm system. But this was clearly the perfect opportunity to move Duran, and not just because he was the biggest fish on the relief market, or that several teams needed his services.
No, the best reason to move Duran at the height of his powers is because he’s a reliever.
It’s one of the first rules of Moneyball, carved out by the Baseball Gods on stone spreadsheets and handed to Billy Beane himself:
Closers are made, not born.
In the early 2000s, Beane’s closers were less relief pitchers and more pump-and-dump schemes. You put in a good reliever, get them to rack up saves, and move them at an inflated price.
Over the last two decades, we’ve discovered nuance in this. For one, if you don’t have relief pitching, you generally don’t have a good team. The first-place Phillies are an exception. Still, blowing 16 saves through 107 games is a weakness that is guaranteed to bite in the playoffs. Improved hitting mechanics league-wide also demand increasingly more velocity, especially in the highest-leverage moments.
Duran isn’t some “fungible” reliever, as statheads would say back in the day. Guys who throw 100 don’t grow on trees. Over the last four years, none of the other six relievers who’ve forced ground balls on 60%-plus of their balls in play have anywhere near Duran’s 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s a unicorn.
Still, Duran’s a reliever, and that’s something that doesn’t age all that well. He might already be starting the descent from his peak.
You’d never know it from his 2.01 ERA, of course, but we’ve already seen Duran’s velocity dip beneath its high point. In 2023, Duran averaged 101.8 mph on his fastball. That dipped over a full point in 2024 (100.8), and we saw another slight drop this season (100.5). No one is gonna get mad about “only” throwing 100, but it creates a version of Duran that isn’t quite as dominant as two years ago. His strikeout percentage has dropped in each of his four seasons.
2022: 33.5%
2023: 32.9%
2024: 28.9%
2025: 25.7%
None of this is to say that Duran is destined to disintegrate in Philly. His offspeed stuff is still fast, nasty, and effective, and it’s kept his numbers stellar despite losing some raw velocity. Not every reliever with elite stuff can maintain elite results when the velo dials down a touch. Still, Duran’s elite ability to induce grounders gives him a chance to join the ranks of well-aging relievers like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel.
If the Twins were contenders or had a team that was poised to contend in the next two years, keeping Duran would be a no-brainer. But if they’re not, why leave yourself holding the bag on a reliever with high trade value? Never mind that any pitcher is one arm tweak away from being on the shelf for a year, but why expose yourself to the risk that his velocity dips to the double-digits next year?
No, the sensible thing to do is get this rebuild started. There was a line of buyers, so the front office should have (and did) shop around for a good package and get players that they like. Rip the band-aid off and start refreshing this roster with youth and talent.
Especially since the bullpen is still in pretty great shape after Duran is gone, even if they can’t replace their closer one-for-one. Provided he’s not traded next, Griffin Jax is having a strong season, barring some blowups. They’ve gotten solid-to-good innings out of retreads like Justin Topa, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe. Then there’s the fact that Louie Varland and his 2.02 ERA are looking like a logical young successor to close out games for the Twins.
It’s almost like great relievers are made, not born. Minnesota cashed in on one, now it’s onto the next.
