The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 28-21 in a game that would decide who would be first in the NFC North — at least for the week.
Expectations for the Packers coming into the season were high, and the Micah Parsons trade only raised them. Nobody, aside from a select few contrarians in the Chicagoland area, expected the Bears to be atop the NFC North 12 weeks into the year. Despite all the underlying metrics screaming that they are an average team, the Bears have a 9-3 record, providing the NFL’s oldest rivalry with stakes we haven’t seen in some time.
Green Bay’s defense started strong, forcing the Bears to a three-and-out after two Caleb Williams overthrows. But an uncharacteristic Jordan Love interception gave Chicago the ball in enemy territory. Despite solid field position, the Packers’ defense held the Bears to a punt and kept them at bay, which is how they spent much of the game — never far away but always a bit out of reach.
Touchdown passes to Christian Watson and Bo Melton — the latter a 45-yard beauty, all through the air — gave the Packers a 14-3 lead going into halftime.
The third quarter would be a back-and-forth affair with both teams scoring touchdowns and the Bears adding an additional field goal to cut it to a 21-14 game. Chicago mounted a 17-play drive to start the fourth quarter, tying on a one-yard pass to Colston Loveland.
The Packers responded with a four-and-a-half-minute drive of their own, where they punched the ball in with Josh Jacobs to make it 28-21. The game was now on a razor’s edge, with Chicago getting the ball back down seven against a rested Packers defense with just 3:32 to score. The Bears got the ball deep into the red zone with 20 seconds on the clock, but on fourth-and-one, Keisean Nixon picked off Williams in the end zone to seal the game.
Here are five numbers that explain Green Bay’s win in a thriller over Chicago.
1
Caleb Williams had just one completion in the first quarter. Coming into this week, the bluster in the Windy City was all about just how much Williams had improved from last season and how he would be much better equipped to handle Green Bay’s defense.
Early on, this wasn’t the case at all.
Williams looked flustered on every drop-back on his first three drives, dangerously overthrowing his first two passes. He looked like he wasn’t ready to deal with all the pressure that Parsons and Co. were applying. On his first six passes, Williams had only one completion on a three-yard pass to the flats.
While he was without his No. 1 receiver, Rome Odunze, Williams’ struggles seemed to be a lot more mental early on, as Green Bay’s pass rush didn’t allow him to settle into a rhythm. That led Williams to quicken his mechanics, resulting in overthrows.
6
Since his return in Week 8, Christian Watson has had six receptions on deep passes. Last season, when Watson tore his ACL, everyone talked about just how impactful he was to the offense and their explosive play rate. Since his return, folks have seen how impactful he has been.
Watson has added another element to this Green Bay offense with his ability to win vertically. Since his return, he has been among the premier deep-ball receivers in the NFL. He is tied for first in deep receptions with CeeDee Lamb, third for receiving yards on these passes with 201 yards, and has three touchdowns on deep balls, just behind Tee Higgins.
In a season when the Packers have struggled to make explosive plays, Watson has been the reliable target for Jordan Love. You could see this on the first touchdown when Love trusted Watson in a one-on-one matchup on a deep post route, and on Watson’s second touchdown when he was one-on-one with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, beating him on a slant route and outracing him to the end zone.
While Green Bay’s receiving corps has suffered injuries with Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft all missing time, when they are healthy, they form quite a formidable group.
71
Green Bay’s defense held the Bears to just 71 yards of offense in the first half, the lowest first-half total from any Ben Johnson-led offense. A big part of what the Bears do so successfully is staying in the game early and avoiding having to chase the game, something you can’t do when you are unable to move the ball.
Williams struggled to play in structure throughout the first half, completing just four passes and looking flustered in the pocket. While the running game was helping, it isn’t fair to expect them to bear the whole load of the offense. Throughout the entire first half, Jeff Haffley was getting the better of Ben Johnson and his young quarterback.
3
Despite their incredible start, Green Bay’s defense allowed the Bears to score on three straight possessions in the second half. Chicago’s offense seemed to have figured out just how to unsettle the Packers’ defense, possessing the ball for most of the half through their run game and a newly efficient Williams.
Swift and Monongai became more integral to Chicago’s offense in the second half, churning out positive runs early on in the drive to keep Williams and the offense in a manageable down and distance.
While Williams struggled in the first half, Johnson seemingly figured out just how to get him back into a good rhythm, having him roll out of the pocket and minimize Green Bay’s pass rushers. Williams looked much improved out of the pocket, forcing the Packers’ defense to adapt to plays out of structure.
More than anything, Chicago’s offense holding the ball for long stretches in the freezing cold took a toll on Green Bay’s defenders, who struggled to stop the Bears.
0
The Chicago Bears had a win percentage of above 50% in zero snaps the entire game. In retrospect, people may think this game was one that just got away from the Bears, or was super close; in many respects, it really wasn’t.
While the Bears did stage a valiant comeback in the third and fourth quarters, they never possessed the ball with a chance to take the lead. Yes, they gave the Packers a bit of a scare late, but it pretty much always felt like a game in Green Bay’s control.
Now, the Packers control their own fate in the NFC North and look to, in the infamous words of Ryan Poles, “Take the North and never give it back.”
