The noise surrounding Lukas Van Ness has been quiet this offseason relative to how much he’ll mean to the Green Bay Packers’ defense this upcoming season.
This is similar to his performance on the field during his first two seasons, which has been quiet. However, at the end of Tuesday’s OTA practice last week, we heard from the former 13th-overall pick and got some insight into why he may not have taken the step we hoped he could have after a promising finish to his rookie campaign.
“Last year I had a broken thumb all of OTAs,” he said, “I wore a full cast all the way until about week 10 or 11, then had some lingering issues. So, I was wearing it most of the season, which is why I was limited to playing on just the right side of the defensive line.
“Playing defensive line, it’s all with your hands. … You kind of get a little bit of a mental block, and it’s kind of taken me a little bit of time to gain some confidence again in utilizing my hands.”
It’s never good to hear a player say he had a mental block. Still, it’s understandable when it results from an injury that affects you on every play. On top of that, one of the main areas of development in Van Ness’ game that was obvious that he needed to work on going into last season was how he used his hands.
Bullrushing edge rushers must develop counters, because you won’t be able to run through the face of an NFL offensive lineman like you could in college.
Still, Van Ness’s thumb has healed, and he’s ready to return to work and take another step forward this season.
“This is my first time to get this slow tempo foundation period just to work on the basics. I’ve really learned a lot over the past few weeks,” Van Ness said. “Going into Year 3, the expectations are always going to be highest for myself. I push myself very hard. … I’ve gotta be stronger, faster, more sound with my fundamentals, and ultimately impact the game as much as possible.”
A step from Van Ness would be huge for this defense, and it will be crucial for its success in many ways. Green Bay’s defense is relying on him to be the second pass rusher next to Rashan Gary. It becomes even more crucial after they released Jaire Alexander.
Matt LaFleur and the defensive staff are keen on getting him on the field in many ways, including playing inside.
“Situationally, you can do that,” Matt LaFleur said regarding Lukas Van Ness getting reps playing inside. “In known passing situations, there’s some thought around that. A lot is going to be dependent on everyone else, as well. Lukas has shown a lot of growth. Excited to see him once the pads go on.”
Hercules certainly looks like he can do it:
The Packers have penciled Van Ness in for a large role, and there will be ample opportunity for him to become a high-level producer.
Last season, Van Ness ranked 78th in pass-rush snaps (247). As a result, he was 69th in sacks (4), 87th in total pressures (20), and had a 65.5 pass rush grade, which ranked 74th among edge rushers, per PFF. He was a middle-of-the-pack third pass rusher last season. You’d hope that his stats would improve if he earns enough snaps to rank among the top 50 players at his position.
Based on the 2024 season, to rank in the top 50, it would take six sacks, 38 pressures, and a 68.2 pass-rush grade, according to PFF. That feels very attainable, but those numbers are similar to Kayvon Thibodeaux, who the New York Giants seem intent on moving on from as their 2nd edge rusher after drafting Abdul Carter third overall. If Van Ness plays like he’s projected to, it won’t feel like he took a step.
To ensure everyone he’s progressing, Van Ness must put up numbers like Trey Hendrickson, Travon Walker, and Gary, who people compared Van Ness to coming out of college. All three of these guys were raw, uber-athletic pass rushers. They also had quiet starts to their careers, but they started to produce at a high level by their third full season.
In their respective third-year breakouts, Hendrickson had 13.5 sacks (this was year four, but he missed almost all of Year 2), Walker had 10.5, and Gary had 9.5. Those are lofty expectations for a guy with seven total sacks in his first two seasons combined. However, it’s not for a 13th-overall pick in Year 3, who Green Bay expects to be the second edge and play often.
Van Ness should be able to push for eight sacks and 45 pressures. Otherwise, Green Bay must start looking for his replacement.
It is a huge season coming up for Van Ness and Green Bay’s pass rush. His development and the rest of the room will be crucial in determining whether the Packers are ready to contend or if they will continue to belong to the NFC’s second-tier teams.
