There’s no sugar-coating how vastly different the Green Bay Packers’ offense has looked with Christian Watson compared to without him.
Watson made his season debut this year in Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he almost immediately seized the alpha role in the wideout room. If he misses any time following the injury he suffered during Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos, it changes the look of the entire offense.
Tight end Tucker Kraft was the focal point of Green Bay’s passing game before suffering a torn ACL in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers. Even with the devastating news that Kraft would miss the rest of the season, there was a sense that everything could still work with Watson returning. The Packers have missed Kraft, no doubt about it, but Watson’s return alleviated a lot of the worry.
Watson’s numbers speak for themselves. While Matt LaFleur runs a system with no true No. 1 wide receiver, if the Packers anointed someone with that title, it’d be Watson.
Watson has an 18% target share within Green Bay’s offense, tied for first on the team with Romeo Doubs. However, in the last four games, Watson has 26 targets compared to just 12 for Doubs.
Doubs racked up a high percentage of the target share early in the year when Watson and Jayden Reed were out. There was a five-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 9 (with the bye week included) where Doubs had target totals of eight, nine, eight, six, and 10. In the last four weeks with Watson taking over, Doubs’ target totals were three, four, two, and three.
And it’s not just Watson’s sheer target share that matters; it’s the constant threat of his game-breaking speed.
Watson is sixth in the entire NFL in yards per target (11.2) and yards per reception (17.2). One of the biggest differences with Watson in the last couple of seasons is his development into a more complete wide receiver. He entered the league as a pretty specific vertical threat, but he’s blossomed into a wide receiver with a complete route tree.
In the first matchup with the Chicago Bears, Watson had two touchdowns. On the first, he torched his matchup for a 23-yard score. On his second, Jordan Love found Watson on a quick-hitting slant route; Watson turned on the burners and did the rest, running 41 yards into the end zone.
The constant threat of just having Watson on the field opens up the entire passing game. Love and Co. were in a groove on Sunday in Denver. With Watson on the field for about half the game, the Packers racked up 23 points. Without Watson, Green Bay managed just three, and any progress in the passing game looked hard to come by.
Perhaps one of the more damning numbers reflecting Watson’s impact comes from his dominator rating. A dominator rating puts a percentage on how much of a player’s (in this case, a wide receiver) receiving yards and receiving touchdowns account for the total percentage of the rest of the offense.
Watson’s mark is at 35%, which at first blush doesn’t seem staggering. Consider that Watson missed the first six games of the season, then reconsider how impactful that 35% is. It’s alarmingly good, and also a sign of how much the Packers will miss him if he isn’t on the field Sunday in Chicago.
The play during which Watson went down with the injury was opening up a patented look for Green Bay. Love recognized the one-on-one coverage downfield. Watson looked like he had a step on All-World cornerback Patrick Surtain II deep into the look, and Love was hit right as he let it rip. He underthrew the ball as a result. Surtain made an incredible play on the pick, and Watson remained down on the field. After the game, Love explained:
I tried to step into it, and I got hit as I was throwing and it just ended up being a little bit short and Pat made a really good play to be able to track it and jump in front of Christian. So, that’s a tough one. I’ll see what happened. I tried to see the replay but it’s an unfortunate play and then, obviously, with Christian going down on that, it makes it even worse.
The good news for the Packers is that multiple reports have indicated Watson avoided a disastrous long-term injury, and there’s a chance he could play Saturday against the Bears. While the last part was included in many of the reports, it sounds like pure speculation at this point.
If Watson misses any time, it significantly changes the offense. Green Bay will have to search for answers, but none will come as easily as the solution of just having Watson out on the field.
