The key to a successful draft is balancing the potential risks and rewards of various prospects. Some players come with more uncertainty looming over them than others. One prime example in this year’s draft class: Walter Nolen.
Knowing all the concerns swirling around Nolen, does his upside still merit the Packers using a first- or second-round pick on him?
Let’s start with the good.
Many desire Nolen’s size as a 3-technique defensive tackle. At 6’4”, 295 lbs., his frame alone makes him an ideal candidate.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that whoever drafts Nolen will give him a try on the edge in certain situations. He has the twitchiness and explosiveness to potentially shine in multiple roles on a defensive line.
Because of the talent he’s displayed at Ole Miss, many, including NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, see him as a three-down player.
Nolen has NFL-starting size but won’t blow you away with his physical traits. However, he gains quick advantages with his explosiveness into contact and ability to beat up blockers when singled up. … He wins as a rusher with his athleticism and play strength, and doesn’t need to be schemed for. The pass rush still requires refinement, but he already flashes quick-win moves that foreshadow good pressure and sack production as a pro. Nolen’s blend of explosiveness and playmaking talent create high upside as a three-down interior lineman.
During one four-week stretch in his lone season at Ole Miss, he fully displayed those quick-win moves and piled up four sacks and nine tackles for loss. Again, that’s not four sacks and nine tackles in a season — he accumulated those numbers over a four-game period late in the season. When Nolen decides he wants to empty the tank, he’s a dominant force and has the ability to take over a possession.
Now, for the other side of the coin.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler broke down some top prospects with more red flags than usual. Nolen was one of the players on that list, and it’s impossible to ignore part of the report.
Multiple scouts have maturity concerns, however. There are several NFL scouting reports that reflect Nolen’s history of walking off the practice field mid-session due to frustration.
Walking out of numerous practices shouldn’t fly in college, and definitely won’t in the NFL.
Green Bay had to suspend wide receiver Romeo Doubs for a game last season for skipping a practice without notifying anybody beforehand.
And Nolen walking out of practices isn’t the only concern.
Since high school, he has attended six different schools and suited up for five of them. He spent two years at Texas A&M before going to Ole Miss for one final year in college. Still, that much shuffling around will have front offices wondering why that’s been the case.
Given the unknowns, it shouldn’t be surprising that executives and scouts, per Fowler’s report, are split on Nolen.
One current NFL defensive coach said Nolen has the highest ceiling in the entire draft. Another noted that whatever team selects him will have their hands full and will have to have a plan for him.
Landing in Green Bay could be the best-case scenario for Nolen. There’s incredible veteran leadership in the locker room, specifically on the defensive side and even up front.
The Packers drafted Kenny Clark in the first round in 2016. He commands respect among his teammates. Clark has been a constant on the defensive line and could be a mentor for Nolen.
In just one year, safety Xavier McKinney has become a vocal leader for the defense and the entire team.
Cornerback Keisean Nixon is battle-tested and always has his teammates’ backs.
Going to a younger team with a little more chaos and far less structure could be a disaster for Nolen and bring out bad habits. However, Matt LaFleur has shown during his time in Green Bay that he doesn’t put up with much nonsense.
The question remains whether or not Nolen would be worth an early pick for the Packers.
Defensive tackle is a sneaky need after T.J. Slaton departed in free agency because the Packers haven’t decided on Devonte Wyatt’s future in green and gold.
Green Bay should have plenty of other candidates at various positions in mind for the No. 23 pick. The risks involved in using a first-rounder on Nolen are too great. However, if Nolen starts to slip because of the aforementioned concerns and he’s on the board at No. 54, why not?
Fans want to see the Packers address wide receiver, cornerback, and pass rusher early. However, the board doesn’t always fall the way you want it.
A first-rounder on Nolen is a definite no. A second-rounder, however, could be well worth a roll of the dice. If Nolen can put it all together and maximize that significant upside, he could become a game-changer.
