Throughout the offseason, several things had to fall into place for the Green Bay Packers to become legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They needed to improve the pass rush, their run blocking had to take a step forward, and special teams could no longer be a liability.
But, above all, the most important factor was Jordan Love making the leap from a good quarterback to a great one.
Through the first month of the season, Love has taken that step. He’s playing at a level that makes him arguably the best quarterback in the NFC right now.
After four games, Love ranks second in total EPA. He’s tied for first with reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen in EPA per play, sits second in passing EPA, fifth in passing yards, and is tied for third in passing touchdowns. Love also ranks third in CPOE, fourth in yards per attempt, and fifth in PFF grade.
Love has been nearly flawless from a clean pocket. He completes 87.2% of his throws, averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, and earning a 93.9 PFF grade — all the highest marks in the league — while posting a 140.3 passer rating, second-best overall.
Love has been highly efficient on third down. He leads the league with 327 passing yards and 18 first downs. Furthermore, he ranks second with three touchdown passes and averages 9.3 yards per attempt (fourth-best). He also owns a 110.1 passer rating (fourth) and has added three scrambles for 49 yards.
In the red zone, Love leads the league with 16 completions, 115 passing yards, and eight passing touchdowns, while ranking second with five touchdown passes inside the 10-yard line.
Among passers with at least 20 dropbacks while blitzed, Love leads all of them in offensive and passing grade, ranks fourth in big-time throw rate, is tied for second in passing touchdowns, and has the third-highest average depth of target. After struggling with intermediate throws last year, he’s made huge improvements and is now among the league’s top quarterbacks in multiple categories.
Love is a top-five quarterback in just about every major advanced metric — and that’s even more impressive when you consider that Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Zach Tom, Aaron Banks, and Anthony Belton have all missed at least one game. His offensive line ranks 30th in pass-blocking efficiency. And that’s not even the full story.
Matt LaFleur didn’t exactly put on a play-calling clinic in the games against the Cleveland Browns and the Dallas Cowboys. Against Cleveland, Love averaged just 1.7 yards on his throws — a drop from the 12.9 yards he was hitting in Weeks 1 and 2.
LaFleur was justified in being concerned about Myles Garrett. However, he acted conservatively in a league where the rules favor offense. I understand taking a conservative approach against Garrett and Cleveland’s defensive line. Still, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt against a historically bad Cowboys defense? That’s an atrocity.
Love’s lone interception of the season came in the Cleveland game. It was more of a heads-up play by Grant Delpit than a truly bad throw. Still, it wasn’t a great decision by Love.
The following week against the Cowboys, LaFleur had one of his worst games in terms of urgency and situational awareness. Early on, the Packers faced a fourth-and-two at midfield — and he just punted.
LaFleur later admitted “some guys” wanted to go for it, but he had no intention of doing so because if they failed to get the first down, Dallas would be in range for Brandon Aubrey. I can’t comprehend such a thought. Why are you playing scared of a kicker when, at the same time, you are going up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL?
LaFleur’s decision to punt technically worked out — the defense got a quick stop. But the Packers were facing one of the league’s worst passing defenses, and their quarterback was on fire. They needed just two yards. Go get the first down and set the tone.
Green Bay’s only possession in overtime started with 4:40 on the clock. They converted a crucial fourth-and-six with just over three and a half minutes left, faced no third downs until the final six seconds, and somehow only targeted the end zone once. The drive looked like a never-ending string of RPOs, despite having a quarterback who would finish the game completing 31 of 43 passes for 337 yards and three touchdowns.
In that game, Love became the first player in Packers history to post 30-plus completions, 300-plus passing yards, three touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and 25-plus rushing yards in a single game. The Packers are 106 years old and have had three Hall of Fame quarterbacks — LaFleur needs to trust his quarterback.
On the Sounds Gouda podcast, co-hosts Jordan Olson and Robert Ralph asked me what grade I’d give Jordan Love through the first four games. I gave him an A instead of an A-plus — and it wasn’t because of Love himself. It was because LaFleur kept him from truly letting it fly, sticking with a conservative approach instead of allowing Love to sling the football.
It’s no surprise that a healthy Jordan Love is a much-improved version of the quarterback he was last year. The season hasn’t even reached Toyotathon yet — that’s when his superpowers kick into X-factor mode. If he keeps up this pace, he should be in the MVP conversation once the regular season wraps up.
