Following the news of Aaron Rodgers‘ signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers, their odds of making the playoffs skyrocketed. However, there’s a difference between having Rodgers under center and starting Mason Rudolph.
Everyone is well aware of the massive Week 8 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh. But, of the two teams, who has a better shot at making a run in 2025?
According to FanDuel, the Packers sit at -108 to make the playoffs, while Pittsburgh’s odds are slightly worse at +148. While the sportsbook odds don’t always come to fruition, they help orient you to the general probability.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will be entering his 19th season at the controls, and they have never had a losing record in his first 18 years. That sets a pretty strong precedent for what we can expect from Pittsburgh, especially considering some of the quarterbacks that they have cycled through following the Ben Roethlisberger era.
Superstar T.J. Watt‘s holdout is a big roadblock currently in Pittsburgh’s way. The All-Pro is seeking a new deal from the Steelers and has escalated the issue by sitting out mandatory minicamp.
With Watt, Pittsburgh’s defense is a problem. Without Watt, many other little holes on the defense look bigger. Still, there’s no doubt that if Watt gets a new deal and with Rodgers under center, Pittsburgh will at least be a playoff contender.
Similarly, a playoff appearance is generally considered to be the floor for Green Bay this year. That precedent was set with quarterback Jordan Love, who made the postseason in each of his first two years as a starter and kept the roster from last year largely intact.
Both teams’ schedules are challenging. Green Bay’s opponent win percentage is .557, while Pittsburgh’s is .526.
All of this could boil down to strength within the conference. Green Bay plays in arguably the league’s toughest division. The Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Packers all made the playoffs last season. The Chicago Bears are expected to be far better with Ben Johnson hopping over from Detroit as their new head coach.
It isn’t much different in the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens are always good, and the Cincinnati Bengals should bounce back in 2025 with Joe Burrow and the wide array of weapons he has on the offense. The Cleveland Browns are in flux, as usual.
And then there’s Pittsburgh.
A case could be made that perhaps the Steelers are in the easier division, thus lending credence to the notion that the Steelers have a better shot at making it further into the postseason than the Packers.
The real focus should be on the conference.
The Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl in February, but Pittsburgh’s path to a conference championship is much more difficult than Green Bay’s.
The Buffalo Bills are always a top threat with Josh Allen. The same can be said about the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, as well as the Ravens with Lamar Jackson.
Led by Mahomes, the Chiefs have made appearances in seven consecutive AFC Championships. They’ve become a team that you can Sharpie into the conference championship. In the last five conference title games in the AFC, opposing the Chiefs has either been Burrow and the Bengals (twice), Allen and the Bills (twice), or Jackson and the Ravens (once).
It’s safe to say the AFC is loaded at the top.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, we saw a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels lead the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship last season. In the same time that the Chiefs have made seven AFC title games in a row, we’ve seen eight different teams in the NFC get to the conference championship. There’s just more parity in the NFC.
On top of all of that, while the Steelers haven’t had a losing season under Tomlin, they haven’t won a playoff game since 2017. They’ve lost by at least 14 points in their last three playoff games.
Rodgers brings a different confidence and swagger — nobody is questioning that. He can also bring headaches and conflicts with him. On the other hand, Love has been cool, calm, and collected in his first two years as a starter and already has a playoff win under his belt.
In a more lenient NFC where there’s more unpredictability — and because there isn’t a Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Jackson — there’s more room for optimism that a given team can make headway in the conference and a deep run in the postseason.
If you strip away all other similarities or slight contrasts, conference strength is the reason the Packers have a better shot at making a deeper run this year than the Steelers.
