I don’t think there’s anyone associated with the Green Bay Packers who would call Luke Musgrave’s 2024 season a success. He didn’t make much of an impact when he was healthy enough to be on the field. He only had seven receptions for 45 yards in seven games. For comparison, in 2023, he caught 34 passes for 352 yards and a touchdown despite missing 11 games.
As last year showed, when he’s on the field he can make an impact as a receiver, even if he isn’t the featured tight end on the roster.
A 6’5”, 253 lb. tight end with 4.6 speed is impressive and has the potential to be a difference-maker in an offense that loves to feature tight ends. If I’m Green Bay, I’m not worried about his receiving ability – I already know he can be a reliable and consistent target for Jordan Love. However, the Packers need a significant improvement in his blocking ability to help their offense take another step.
Matt LaFleur uses 12-personnel (two-tight-end sets) as much as any team in football; it has long been a pillar of his system. The strength of 12-personnel is its ability to make a defense predictable for the offense. You’ll often see Cover 3 with an extra safety near the line of scrimmage to counter the run threat. It’s perfect for adding the “illusion of complexity” that LaFleur frequently references.
In 2021, for example, the Packers ranked second in the NFL in two-tight-end set frequency, just behind the Miami Dolphins. A year later, only one team used more two-tight-end sets than them again. The interesting part? The two tight ends they used, Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis, were vastly different players. Tonyan was the clear receiving option due to his below-average blocking, while Lewis served as the dominant blocker, a role he played throughout his time in Green Bay.
The Packers still found success despite the predictability of their tight end usage. In 2022, they ranked third in success rate (54.8%) when running two-tight-end sets. In this case, success rate refers to a team’s progress toward securing a first down or scoring a touchdown. That remains the highest mark of the LaFleur era.
That’s a big reason Green Bay revamped their tight end room in the 2023 draft, spending a second-round pick on Musgrave and a third-round pick on Tucker Kraft. They choose not to re-sign Tonyan or Lewis and get younger and more dynamic at a position that continues to evolve in his importance. They really wanted to run 12-personnel more effectively while adding an element of unpredictability.
Musgrave and Kraft have proven to be more than capable receiving options; we have seen that when they are on the field together. However, Kraft has taken a commanding lead as the No. 1 tight end, excelling as both a pass-catcher and a blocker. While the Packers still view Musgrave as a dangerous receiving weapon, his blocking needs to improve for the team to fully unlock its potential in 12-personnel.
Musgrave’s inability to stay healthy was a major reason Green Bay’s 12-personnel usage declined in 2024. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Packers ran two-tight-end sets only 28% of the time, compared to 34% in 2023. Ben Sims and John FitzPatrick replaced Musgrave while he was out injured, and they weren’t good enough blockers or pass catchers to make the formation as effective as Green Bay wanted. Together, they accounted for only 20% of offensive snaps.
If Musgrave improves as a blocker, it would help the offense in multiple ways: increasing the effectiveness of 12-personnel formations and allowing Kraft to stay fresh, reducing his 85% snap rate.
Consider Musgrave and Kraft’s scouting reports when projecting them.
We haven’t seen Musgrave stay healthy long enough to determine how successful Green Bay’s 12-personnel package can truly be. However, his pre-draft scouting report highlighted his potential fit in this system.
He needs a little more bulk for combat in the trenches, but he offers what evaluators are looking for in technique, strain, and demeanor. Musgrave has starter potential and should gain a coveted slot on draft boards from teams looking to add versatility to their 12-personnel (two-tight-end) packages.
Meanwhile, Kraft is projected to play effectively beside Musgrave.
Kraft provides formational versatility that will be appealing for teams that make heavy use of 12-personnel (two tight ends). He has the body control and catch toughness to be more than just a traditional Y tight end.
So far, these scouting reports have been spot-on.
Having two strong blocking tight ends is a key element of an effective 12-personnel system. We already know Kraft is a solid blocker. Musgrave needs to catch up. Musgrave isn’t necessarily a terrible blocker – he’s what I’d call a willing blocker who gives effort. Still, there’s plenty of room to improve.
In 2023, he earned a below-average blocking grade of 45.7. For context, Pro Football Focus considers 60 an average grade, meaning Musgrave has a lot of work to do, particularly in consistency and body positioning when blocking in-line.
Green Bay has the talent to run 12-personnel as well or better than any team in the NFL. If Musgrave stays healthy in 2025 and refines his blocking, the Packers could have one of the league’s most dangerous tight end duos. Kraft has more than done his part. Now, 2025 is all about Musgrave stepping up.
