For arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson‘s numbers have been lean lately. He hasn’t found chemistry with quarterback J.J. McCarthy yet, and McCarthy’s overall accuracy problems haven’t helped.
Despite some low totals in certain categories, Jefferson’s targets and target share are right on par. Therefore, the Green Bay Packers must be ready for a lot of him on Sunday — and prepared for his ability to blow up a game at any moment.
Justin Jefferson has 93 targets on the season, which ranks sixth in the NFL. His 30.4% target share is also sixth in the league. Even with the high volume, which is warranted and the norm for Jefferson, it hasn’t been a typical season.
Since the bye week, Jefferson has receiving yard totals of 79, 74, 47, 37, and 61. It’s a far cry from the pace he established in his first five years. Jefferson is averaging 74.7 receiving yards per game, which would be the lowest total of his career. In his rookie campaign, Jefferson averaged 87.5 per game, his current “low” in his six-year career.
It hasn’t been for a lack of targets.
After a quiet first three weeks of the season, Jefferson has target totals of 11, 11, 10, 11, 9, 12, and 9. While the two J.J.’s haven’t found a rhythm yet, the Vikings have still force-fed their superstar — as they should.
Green Bay is aware of this, and Minnesota’s blueprint is unlikely to change in that respect. As good as Jeff Hafley’s defense has been, there are always flaws that teams can expose. If you don’t believe Justin Jefferson is the best in the business, consider Ja’Marr Chase, who might be the best receiver in the league. He tagged the Packers back in October for 10 receptions, 94 yards, and a touchdown.
If there’s been one weak point or a position brought into question on Green Bay’s defense this year, it’s been the cornerback spot. Carrington Valentine has been splendid and deserves a lot of credit. Jefferson presents a different beast, though. No matchup in the world exists where Minnesota would believe Jefferson isn’t at an advantage against a cornerback.
The issue is the guy throwing it to Jefferson.
Jefferson covers a lot of ground and has an insane radius to pluck the ball out of the air. He has a catchable target rate of just 66% this year, which ranks 63rd among wide receivers. Meanwhile, among all current 32 starting quarterbacks, McCarthy ranks dead last in EPA/play and turnover-worthy play rate. It just hasn’t been a recipe for success, despite McCarthy having Jefferson and often targeting him.
After missing Jefferson on a third-down out route — a pretty routine throw for most starting quarterbacks — the boo birds came out against Chicago on Sunday. McCarthy blamed himself afterwards.
“You just can’t miss those,” McCarthy said after the loss. “This league’s too hard. There’s three or five decisions (and) plays that I want back more than anything, and that’s one of them.”
It doesn’t appear to be a sinking ship in Minnesota, though. Jefferson and fellow wideout Jordan Addison were reassuring and supportive after another dud from McCarthy.
“I have to be headfirst in leading us into the direction of winning, of being where it needs to be,” Jefferson said. “If that takes taking J.J. out and getting more time with him and creating that connection with him, that’s what I’ve got to do.”
The passing game is struggling. McCarthy is struggling. Going away from Jefferson would be counterproductive. The Vikings know it. The Packers know it. O’Connell knows it.
Justin is our franchise player, he is a guy that has assumed such a role in this organization that he understands the value of his work preparation throughout the week, what he brings to our team from an energy standpoint, and I’ll never fault him for the competitive drive he has to help his team win. And I think that’s the biggest thing that comes out of it in my dialogue with him – and we talk a lot.
Jefferson’s numbers aren’t up to his standard. Putting all the blame on McCarthy wouldn’t be fair. Putting any of it on Jefferson would be equally odd.
Jefferson will continue to see plenty of passes thrown his way. That can’t change if the Vikings want to figure this thing out. Hafley and the Packers aren’t stupid. They know he will be an important part of the blueprint. Still, can Green Bay stop Jefferson anyway, and can McCarthy deliver the pigskin with better accuracy?
The targets, the looks, the opportunities haven’t dwindled for Jefferson. Green Bay needs to be ready for a high-volume day for the star wide receiver.
