In a league where teams almost always defer after winning the coin toss, the Green Bay Packers opt to receive the football to open the game.
Matt LaFleur has always emphasized starting fast and firing up the team immediately. He wants his guys to wake up with that “hot pi–” energy, bringing intensity from the first snap to set the tone.
That mentality led LaFleur to take an aggressive approach by opting to start with the ball. His offense opened the game in the last two weeks but went scoreless on first drives against the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers punted on their first two drives against Minnesota and quickly fell into a 20-3 hole, later trailing 27-10. The offense also started slow against the Bears, and self-inflicted mistakes derailed them just as they began building momentum.
A tendency for falling into big deficits, repeated self-inflicted mistakes, or both have been crucial factors in five of Green Bay’s six losses this year. They dug themselves big holes against the Vikings in both matchups, managed just six points on three red-zone trips against the Philadelphia Eagles, and trailed 17-3 at halftime against the Detroit Lions.
Against the Bears, they were caught off guard by a trick play on special teams. Jayden Reed also fumbled inside Green Bay’s 25-yard line, and Malik Willis lost another fumble in field goal range because of busted protection. However, he could have better sensed the pressure and held on to the ball.
A slow start to Green Bay’s passing game has been a recurring issue for the offense. “It hasn’t been good,” LaFleur said after Green Bay’s 24-22 loss to Chicago. “It is extremely frustrating right now.”
LaFleur said the Packers had a productive week of practice leading up to the Bears game. But on game day, it felt like a Minnesota hangover. The execution wasn’t there, the game plan faltered, play calls were questionable, and individual performances were lacking. Everyone was off.
Green Bay’s defense is trending in a different direction than the offense. They have the best EPA per play since 2010 and rank top-10 in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush. They’re also top-five in takeaways. They’ve been this productive despite missing Jaire Alexander for 10 games, lacking a consistent pass rush, and their best linebacker only getting significant reps after two months.
I struck a nerve with Packers fans this week who downplayed the defense’s performance. We can talk about Jeff Hafley’s situational play calling when they have a lead and allow the offense to exploit them on dink-and-dunk plays. Still, the reality is the Packers will finish the season as a top-10 unit in every statistic.
Given their performance on both offense and defense, I have no idea why the Packers have chosen to start with the ball lately. Green Bay needs to let its most effective unit set the pace, and that’s definitely not the offense.
The point here isn’t to knock Green Bay’s offense. They’re a top-10 unit in points per game and top-five in rushing. However, the defense has been their most productive unit, and they deserve the chance to start the game and establish dominance. It might not work every time, but they’ve done more than enough to earn that opportunity.
It will be interesting to see how LaFleur handles the coin toss in the Wild Card round against the Eagles. Philadelphia has a top-two rushing attack, and Green Bay might need to win a shootout to escape Philly with a win.
LaFleur could opt to get the ball first and make the Eagles chase, or he might let his defense prove they’ve learned from their Week 1 mistakes and go out there to stop Saquon Barkley. Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol, and his availability could play a factor. Regardless, the Packers will need to play their best game of the season to advance to the divisional round.
It’s playoff football season, and defenses win championships. If Green Bay is going to make a run, their defense will be the foundation that propels them into an improbable story of redemption.
