It would be unwise to disregard Mike Conley before any playoff matchup, even if it seems difficult for him to remain on the court. In his 18-year career, Conley has already played in 93 playoff games, 14 more than the Minnesota Timberwolves have as an entire franchise.
Given his experience and importance to this team throughout the last two years, you can never discount Conley. However, the Los Angeles Lakers present an undeniably challenging matchup for him in the upcoming first-round series, given that Conley will almost certainly have to guard the ever-improving Austin Reaves.
While the Lakers have a slightly unbalanced roster without an imposing frontcourt, they are oversized at their other positions, with Reaves the shortest of the bunch at 6’5 “. At 6’1”, it seems impossible that Conley can guard anyone else. He won’t be able to guard Luka Doncic (though so is everyone else in the league).
Rui Hachimura is the only other player Conley could feasibly guard. However, with Doncic and LeBron James’s basketball IQ, that looks like a size mismatch that the Lakers will quickly exploit.
However, that defensive matchup isn’t the end of the world. Reaves performed below his season average against Minnesota this season at 17.7 PPG, shooting just 42.5% from the floor, compared to his 23.6 PPG and 46% season averages.
Unfortunately, we have very little data to base this new matchup on because the Wolves have lost their only game against the Lakers since the Doncic trade. However, that game is not especially relevant, given that none of Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, or Donte DiVincenzo played in Minnesota’s 111-102 loss to LA on February 27. It was only the sixth game for Doncic in LA, and the team chemistry was far from fully developed.
Should the defense become an issue, the Wolves don’t need Conley in this matchup. Nickeil Alexander-Walker or DiVincenzo could start in his place. NAW is the most likely replacement. He initiates offense often from the bench and is well-equipped to take on the Reaves matchup defensively. DiVincenzo and Naz Reid have great chemistry as part of the bench unit, and it might make sense to leave that intact.
The Wolves probably need Conley to help run the offense, given that the Lakers are likely to blitz Anthony Edwards at every possible opportunity to force the ball out of his hands. With that in mind, Minnesota will want someone to control the offense. Outside of Julius Randle, nobody on the roster besides Conley is capable of that consistently, even though Minnesota has other competent stop-gaps.
Minnesota’s clutch-time offense has been a huge issue all season. Although they have had the most clutch games in the league, their offense declines at the end of games. They average 106.4 points per 100 possessions, well below the average league offensive rating of 115.5 points per 100 possessions.
So, while their defense is a concern, the Wolves have a genuine issue with playing competent offense when the games are at their most intense. Conley has also shot 41% from three across the entire season, making him an important spot-up shooting option at the end of games, helping to ease the offensive load off Anthony Edwards.
The key to the Conley factor in this playoff series will be how quickly coach Chris Finch changes and adapts during games where Conley struggles. Reaves is unlikely to cook him for an entire season. However, in last year’s Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks, Doncic was ruthless at hunting Conley on defense, which was a big reason for Minnesota’s demise, given they were even more reliant on him a season ago.
This time, the Wolves have two sizable guards they can use to replace Conley. Finch could even use Jaylen Clark if he wants a specialized defensive option. While Conley is vital offensively, they can win games without him. Conley’s 24.7 minutes per game this year were the lowest of his entire career in the association.
Despite many pundits thinking that the Gobert dilemma will be the big one for the series, the Mike Conley problem may be bigger. Minnesota is fortunate to have NAW and DiVincenzo standing ready, allowing them to adapt to weaknesses quicker than many other teams in the league.
The question is, of course, whether Finch will react quickly enough when he must. Still, given last season’s successful playoff run, it would be a gamble to bet confidently against them.
