Before the Minnesota Timberwolves knew who they were playing in the second round, Rudy Gobert spoke after practice on Saturday afternoon about the urgency of keeping the underdog mentality.
“I think sometimes we have tendencies to get a little too comfortable when people are praising us. … We have to keep that underdog mentality,” he paused before continuing. “You know, no one believed in us when the season started, and we got to keep it that way.”
Just 48 hours later, Chris Finch echoed a similar sentiment when talking about Minnesota’s mentality Monday.
“This team has been pretty motivated for a while now. … When you’re playing against a team that won four championships… they still have the remnants of a really good core plus Butler.” Finch continued. “(The Warriors) believe they can win it, they believe they are going to be the favorites.”
Finch’s attempt to change the narrative from the Wolves no longer being underdogs in the second round has some merit. The Warriors have at least three future Hall of Famers: Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green. Beyond that, the Wolves will be a heavy favorite, not only in the eyes of the Vegas books (-194 on FanDuel on Tuesday morning ) but also based on the metrics the two teams have cobbled together over the latter half of the season.
The Wolves were at their best offensively late in the season
Offensively, the Wolves were a juggernaut to finish the season. In Minnesota’s final 21 games since March 1, it is:
- Fourth in points per game (121.0)
- Fourth in field goal percentage (49.7%)
- Fifth in three-point percentage (38.7%)
- Third in true shooting percentage (61.5%)
- Tenth in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.07)
- Eighth in offensive rebound percentage (31.2%)
The Wolves had the second-best offensive rating (121.9) in the league, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minnesota’s growing chemistry largely contributed to the offensive boon.
Six players averaged double digits over the final 21 games of the season, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Mike Conley were close to joining that group, averaging 9.4 and 8.4. Five players averaged 3.0 or more assists over the same period, led by Julius with 5.2 per game.
However, Minnesota’s offense slowed down in the postseason
Interestingly, Minnesota’s offensive efficiency didn’t carry over into its first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Wolves saw their offensive rating drop by 5.2 points, finishing at 116.7 through the five-game series. That’s mainly due to the drop in their shooting; Minnesota’s true shooting dropped by 6.6%.
Their three-point percentage also dropped by 6.4% in the first round. Minnesota’s shooting dropped off even though 21.4% of its total field goals were wide-open three-point attempts (defined as a shot with no defender within six feet). That percentage was only down 3% from their regular season mark of 24.4%, one of the ways that highlights that the Wolves were getting into their normal offensive flow. However, they failed to make shots that they usually knock down.
The Warriors aren’t shooting like they normally do
Golden State’s offense is slightly easier to explain. Since the Jimmy Butler trade on February 5, the Warriors’ offense has struggled shooting, finishing 17th in three-point percentage (36.3%) and 14th in true shooting (58.8%).
However, ball movement is Golden State’s superpower. Since the Butler trade, they have had a league-best 73.1% assist percentage, meaning nearly three-quarters of their made baskets come off assists.
With ball movement usually come turnovers. Still, the Warriors barely turned the ball over, producing the league’s sixth-best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.08). Golden State’s ball movement counteracted its poor shooting, giving it the ninth-best offensive rating since the trade (117.9).
The Warriors faced a similar drop offensively in the first round as Minnesota. Their offensive rating fell 6.2 points. Golden State’s assist percentage dipped to a much more mortal number of 64.6%, and its assist-to-turnover ratio slightly dipped to 1.95. The Warriors shot 35.8% from distance in their first-round series, similar to their 36.3% in the regular season, representing their true shooting ability. However, it had a more significant 3.7% dropoff in the first round.
Golden State’s stats don’t explain everything
However, the dropoff doesn’t meet the eye test. The Warriors played significantly more isolation basketball against the Houston Rockets, and they seemingly lost faith in some of their drive-and-kick options as the series went along. The Wolves pose a similar matchup problem for Golden State. They have the size and wing defenders to crowd passing lanes and render lesser shooters ineffective.
Both teams excel defensively. Since the Butler trade, the Warriors have ranked first in defensive rating (109.7). That’s primarily due to their switchability and ability to have multiple plus defenders on the court.
Spearheaded by Draymond Green as the center, the Warriors can play lineups with Butler, and Gary Payton II can line up as the power forward, allowing for switching on every pick-and-roll play while also having the length to jump into passing lanes. That’s something the Warriors used to great effect, forcing the Rockets into a 14.5% turnover percentage in the first round, meaning roughly one of every eight possessions ended in the Warriors forcing a turnover.
The Wolves should be able to match Golden State defensively
On Minnesota’s side of the defensive discussion, they finished 7th in the league since March 1. While they’re less efficient than Golden State, the Wolves’ defensive scheme is just as intense. It is centered around flexibility, multiple lineup looks that can switch on screens, blitz when needed, and play drop defense with Rudy Gobert.
The Wolves bank on that versatility to confuse offenses. Meanwhile, they have a constant flow of capable on-ball defenders who continually harass ball-handlers. Minnesota similarly thrived on forcing opponents’ mistakes, forcing the Lakers to a 15.9% turnover percentage in their five-game series.
“It’s going to be a tough matchup,” said Finch. “It’s a championship pedigree team. [The Warriors] are similar to us. They played their best basketball down the stretch into the playoffs.
“They got us three out of four times this year… so there are a lot of things to contemplate.”
Minnesota will enter the series with an edge offensively, provided its shooting returns to regular-season form. The Wolves will also rely on their depth again, especially defensively, to contain Curry.
The Warriors series has a similar feel to the Lakers series, where the Wolves should be favorites, but they cannot overlook Golden State’s star power. However, it’s important to remember that at this point in the playoffs, all eight remaining teams deserve to be here.
There will be no easy outs, the underdog-turned-favorite Wolves included.
