On October 3, Julius Randle sat on a stool, flanked by Keita Bates-Diop and Donte DiVincenzo, and spoke about his former and now new coach, Chris Finch.
“I’ve always thought he was a genius,” he said. “He’s a great communicator and knows how to get the best out of his players. … I always say playing [in New Orleans] and even to this point, that was the easiest my game had ever felt, playing under Finch.”
A lot has changed since that welcome interview. The Minnesota Timberwolves have experienced highs and lows, frustrations and elation. They are riding a high, having won seven of their last nine games, which may have prompted them to stand pat at the trade deadline.
Standing pat has ensured that Randle will remain a big part of the team’s 2024-25 plans. However, his potential contract opt-in could be a valuable asset in the offseason.
We must assess his performance this season to understand how Randle’s player option can become an asset.
Randle has been an enigma. His 18.9 points per game is the lowest average since 2017-18. His 7.2 rebounds are a career low, aside from his rookie season when he played 14 minutes before suffering an injury in his first game.
He’s averaging 4.5 assists, his lowest since 2019-20. Randle’s field goal percentage is the same as his career average of 47.0%, and his 32.1% three-point percentage is only 1.1% lower than his career average.
Randle is still playing 32.6 minutes per game. At first glance, Randle appears to be regressing rapidly. However, the advanced data suggests otherwise.
- Randle’s 57.8% true-shooting percentage is his second-best total since 2018-19.
- His 4.2 win shares are already the fourth-highest total of his 11-year career.
- He’s posting the third-highest offensive rating of his career (113.2) while posing his second-best defensive rating (110.3).
- Randle’s 1.57 assist-to-turnover ratio is the second-best of his career.
- His 12.0 turnover ratio is the fourth-lowest of his career.
- Meanwhile, his assist ratio is the third-highest of his career.
Randle has been productive despite his usage percentage dropping to its lowest mark since 2017-18, which is 3.4% lower than last year. That means Randle is getting roughly 3-4 fewer possessions per game that end in him shooting or turning the ball over.
The eye test makes things even more confusing. Randle occasionally can be unstoppable, driving to the basket, posting up, using his footwork and strength to elude defenders, and seemingly scoring at will. He is also a capable passer who can pass out of shots and post-ups with lightning precision.
At other times, Randle can over-dribble into the paint and cause turnovers. He can force his shot early in the shot clock, ending possessions early. Opponents can also catch Randle ball-watching, leaving fans with a bad impression of his play.
Randle is a complicated player but still an asset to the Wolves. This season, he has proven to be a valuable primary option with bench units, where he can dictate the offense. In lineups where he’s the lone starter, the group has a 20.3 net rating, and they are an impressive +23 points in only 66 minutes. Randle also has a +2.9 overall net rating, highlighting his value on the court.
However, that is not the sole reason Randle is an asset. His contract allows for flexibility this offseason. Based on the new CBA, if Randle opts into his $30.94 player option next offseason, it would coincide with Rudy Gobert’s $8 million pay decrease and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid‘s contracts expiring. Factor in the rising salary cap, and the Wolves would dip roughly $40.5 million under the second apron, even with Randle picking up his option.
The Wolves can aggregate Randle in a trade by dropping below the second apron. That means the Wolves could combine him with other players to move him, something they could not do at the deadline this season due to the second apron penalties. Minnesota could also sign and trade him to a contender for assets or to make space available.
Because Randle can opt into his contract without putting the Wolves over the second apron, they still have the cap space to sign Reid long-term.
Randle’s expiring contract can also be valuable. The Wolves can trade it to a contending team pushing up against the second apron, bring in a player, and re-sign them. Teams over the cap can only sign one mid-level exception player (MLE), which will be around $14 million next season. The rest of the signings must be their own contracts, draft picks, or vet minimum players.
Therefore, a team in the first apron can trade for Randle’s expiring contract and take back $3 million more in cap (10% of Randle’s contract) million more in cap. Teams over the cap but not in the second apron can take back $7.5 million more (25% of Randle’s contract). It’s a way for either team to add a quality player while being restricted in free agency under the new CBA rules. A team looking for a third star would likely see the opportunity to add a Randle-caliber player, significantly more appealing than an MLE player.
Meanwhile, teams in the second apron can trade for Randle and reroute salary potentially to the Wolves or a third team. That would allow his contract to expire, and they would fall under the second apron the following offseason.
If the Wolves don’t trade Randle in the offseason, his player option still holds value as a sizeable contract to match the money of the next disgruntled All-Star at the deadline. Randle and Gobert combined to make just over $65 million. Randle and Jaden McDaniels make $54 million. The Wolves will probably be under the second apron at next year’s deadline, so they could pair contracts to trade for an All-Star. They also have young talent they can add to the trade to entice a trade partner.
In most superstar trades, the team trading the star gets back a solid veteran (think Zach LaVine in the De’Aaron Fox trade) and young talent or draft picks. Let’s say Trae Young wants out of Atlanta at next year’s deadline. His cap hit is $45.99 million next season. The Wolves could pair Randle with a young Rob Dillingham to get to $36 million, then add around $10 million of salary, whether it’s Donte DiVincenzo ($11.9 million), Mike Conley ($10.7 million) or a player they sign this offseason.
Minnesota has a plethora of young talent like Dillingham, Jaylen Clark, Terrence Shannon Jr., the Detroit Pistons pick in this draft, Leonard Miller, and Josh Minott. The Wolves have the assets to pair with a Randle contract to pull off a blockbuster move.
Finally, Randle could gel with his teammates after returning from injury and work his way into Minnesota’s plans. Either way, Randle staying on the team opens more doors than it closes, even if he was a downgrade from Karl-Anthony Towns this year.
The combination of Randle being a positive player this season for the Wolves and the flexibility his expiring contract has if he opts in or the sign-and-trade potential if he opts out this offseason could have been part of Minnesota’s thought process when trading for him. Couple that with the trust Randle has in Finch and the growing signs that the Wolves are getting on track, and it sets them up for this offseason and beyond.
