Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
Let’s keep riding Ant’s point prop, as I think there are a couple of important factors that will help send it over tonight. First and foremost is his All-Star Game starter snub, which should be fueling a revenge tour against every opponent for the foreseeable future. Next is the sting of losing to the Jazz in ugly fashion, and the team likely wanting to leave no doubt in this game.
That should get more minutes to the starters even if this is a blowout like the last meeting with Chicago. In that game earlier this season, Ant only had 23 points but it was a highly efficient 23, and he didn’t need to take over. I think the factors for tonight’s game will change that, especially against a bad Bulls defense, so look for another big night from Ant in this one.
NBA (1 Unit) Jusuf Nurkic Over 27.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ
This Nurkic PRA prop is maybe one of the best-kept secrets in NBA betting right now, even the books don’t seem to be catching on. There have been adjustments to the number over the past 10 games or so, but generally he’s been blowing right past the total on a nightly basis. In the 15 games he’s played since December 1st, Nurkic is 12-3 over this total with 30.7 on average. He’s also needed much more in the frontcourt with Lauri Markkanen out tonight, and the matchup against San Antonio and Wemby doesn’t concern me as he put up 34 PRA against them on Monday, and 29 in the meeting a month ago. After a triple-double against the Wolves last game, look for Nurkic to continue his stat-stuffing tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly/UC Santa Barbara Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This total mostly hinges on whether Cal Poly can dictate tempo, and I think there’s a reasonable chance they will. These are two very different teams in the pace department, with Poly ranked 3rd in adjusted tempo but just 334th for Santa Barbara. But UCSB has been pulled into track meets before, especially in conference as the Big West has another hair-on-fire team in Fullerton and their game against UCSB got to 179 points.
If Poly is able to push the pace, then points should be easy to come by as they love to fire from deep and the Gauchos are just 314th in three-point percentage defense. Santa Barbara can really shoot though, especially from deep where they’re 21st nationally in percentage, so more possessions for them will result in lots more points. UCSB is also one of the most foul-prone teams in the country, and Poly also lives at the free throw line, so that’s another easy avenue to points in a game that should clear this total.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) CS Bakersfield/Hawaii Under 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Hawaii defense is just too good, and totals like this are much too high for a team like them. The Warriors are now 12-3 to the under this season, which is the best mark in the country, and the 10th-lowest average margin to the total of minus-6.7 points. That’s due to one of the best shooting defenses in the country, with Hawaii ranking 6th in effective field goal defense and 5th in three-point percentage allowed.
They should be able to completely shut down a Bakersfield team that simply can’t shoot. The Roadrunners are 349th in effective field goal percentage, and while they hardly take any three’s, they’re still awful inside the arc at 342nd in two-point percentage. Hawaii has had two conference games where their defense didn’t look that great, both against elite shooting teams, but CSB just isn’t going to threaten them from the field and I think that keeps this game well under the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-22 (-1.82 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
