Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Houston Rockets/Charlotte Hornets Under 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
Charlotte has played one more game than the Celtics this season, so they don’t technically have the best under record in the league. But I see them as the best given how they’ve played after a rocky start to the season, and this spot against another great under team should be another low-scoring affair.
Houston has been a very solid 30-22-1 to the under this season, with a negative plus/minus to the total, thanks to a top-5 defense and the third-slowest pace in the league. I don’t have a lot of confidence in their offense, with just 101.6 PPG in their five games headed into the break, especially against this Charlotte defense.
The Hornets have already shut the Rockets down once this season in a 109-99 win in Houston, a game where Miles Bridges had a big impact. He’ll be serving his suspension tonight, and Charlotte will also be without Coby White, so their offense takes a big step back as well. That’s why this total has come down, but I still really like it here as two strong under teams clash.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PH
I wish these teams were meeting again without the benefit of all that rest from the All-Star break, but maybe defensive legs don’t matter with these squads. We know Atlanta is going to push the pace as they’re 2nd in the league for tempo, and that should be fine with the Sixers who will play a more perimeter-oriented game with Joel Embiid sidelined tonight. I think that creates the style needed for a high-flying start from two teams used to that kind of opening quarter.
Both the Hawks and the Sixers are averaging more than 30 points scored in first quarters this season, while also allowing 30-plus on defense. That has created some wild starts for both teams at times, and is why we see this number inflated to a pretty high level. But both squads went into the break having wild first quarters and they’ve done it against each other already this season, so I’ll take a shot that we see another fast start tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Altitude
This number is a touch lower than what has typically been lined for Jokic, as his PRA total has been north of 50 pretty often. I can’t get past what he did the last time he visited the Clippers, dropping 55 on their heads with 12 boards and 6 assists for good measure. He’s done pretty well against them the past few seasons too, averaging 52.5 PRA in the past 8 regular season meetings, with better performances on the road than at home. With fresh legs off the All-Star break, look for Joker to get himself back in the MVP race with a big all-around effort night tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 25-36 (-7.20 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
