Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons -10.5 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN
The Bulls are one of those teams generating conversations about preventing tanking, as Chicago seems to have fully embraced the tank for the rest of the season. A stretch of 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games should be indicative of that, and now having to face the best team in the East isn’t going to help.
I’m fully ready to give Detroit their flowers, especially with how Cade Cunningham is playing, and them running out the Knicks without their two top bigs was very impressive. The Pistons have taken the past two meetings in this series by double digits, and with Chicago not putting up any effort I don’t see why it can’t happen again.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs -10.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Two teams could not be headed in more opposite directions than these two. If the Bulls are a problem with tanking, then the Kings are the poster children of the issue as they’ve lost 15 straight and only covered in 4 of those losses. Believe me, this team is going to threaten the all-time consecutive loss streak, and it’s going to be another ugly one tonight.
I’m not laying almost 20 points in an NBA game though, regardless of how bad the Kings are or how hot the Spurs might be. So let’s look to the first half instead, where Sacramento is 29th in average margin this season, and even worse numbers during this 15-game streak. The Kings are making no effort to hide it, not even playing their key guys, so San Antonio should jump out to a big halftime lead tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Missouri @ Arkansas -10.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is a great spot for Arkansas to bounce back off their loss in that insane game against Alabama the other night. The Razorbacks were rolling until that double-OT thriller, and I think they get back on track against a border rival today. Not many teams bounce back as well as the Hogs do, as they’re 6-0 ATS after a loss with a plus-12.9 average ATS margin, winning those games by 25.7 points on average. Mizzou isn’t terrible, and are on the tourney bubble, but their performances in road/neutral site game against premier competition is troubling. The recipe is definitely there for Arkansas to run them out, and that’s what I expect to happen.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan/Duke Under 151 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN
There are significant differences at books on this total, so be sure to pick off this number at Caesars instead of one of the lower totals elsewhere. I see this as being too high-profile a game for it to turn into a track meet, especially on a neutral court with the two top defenses by adjusted efficiency squaring off. It’ll be a clash of styles, as Michigan wants to run but Duke has been elite at slowing teams down with their defense. And the Blue Devils might be one of the best candidates in the country to match up inside with Michigan’s massive frontcourt, as Duke has the second-tallest roster in the country and is 14th in two-point percentage allowed. This could be a matchup that decides the overall top seed next month, so I expect it to be tighter and more defensive oriented, putting me on the under at this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-27 (-0.80 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
