Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors Over 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Both previous meetings this season have gone over this total, and I understand those games had Steph Curry and/or Jimmy Butler playing which won’t happen today. But I’m expecting this Nuggets offense to do a lot of the work in getting this game over the total, as they’re clicking on a completely different level right now. Dropping 157 points the other night in a get-right game is an outlier, but not as much as you’d expect.
This Denver offense is by far the best in the league for just about any metric you can name, including against top-10 defenses which is what Golden State boasts. Importantly, the Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon, and when he’s out but Nikola Jokic plays, Denver’s games are 22-6 to the over. The Warriors should be able to contribute some here though, especially from the three-point line, and I think that helps get this game over a relatively lower number.
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks -10 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN
The Knicks were pretty much a lifeless team for 7 quarters coming out of the All-Star break, then they woke up in the 4th last night. I’m counting on that jolt to carry over into this game against a Bulls team that is intentionally lifeless. The February tank-a-thon for Chicago continues on after the Pistons rolled them last night, making it an 0-8 month for the Bulls who have posted a minus-17.9 average margin in those games. The Knicks can’t afford to choke in games like this, and I doubt the Bulls will let them as they try to pile up the losses.
NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Phoenix Suns Over 222.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on KUNP
These teams have met twice this season, crushing this total both times with 237 and 255 points. Roster configuration has been about as disjointed as it gets for those games, but before you tell me Phoenix is without Devin Booker tonight, just know that the higher-scoring meeting came without Booker or Deni Avdija playing. With Phoenix having gone to double-OT yesterday, their defensive legs won’t be fully there, especially with their best defender Dillon Brooks out with a hand injury.
This situation also triggers a trend for Portland, who is 10-3 to the over this season when they have a rest advantage against their opponent, going over by 9.8 points on average. The Blazers should be in a foul mood after getting run out by 54 on Friday night, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take the opportunity to run up the score themselves. There should be plenty of three’s in this game and a faster pace driven by Portland, so I like the over on this fairly low total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Deni Avdija Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Avdija currently has a questionable tag headed into this game, so monitor his status. But if he plays, he should have a good chance to make contributions in all phases. His scoring is due to get back on track after just 26 total points in his past 2 games, and no Dillon Brooks to bother him will definitely be helpful. The whole Blazers team should be highly motivated to flush the memory of Friday night’s loss, and I think Avdija leads that charge with a big game here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-27 (-1.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
