Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Indiana Pacers First Half Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports IN
I’m very much a believer in selectively targeting Hornets totals depending on the situation, and I think this is another excellent spot to look over. While Charlotte has been an under machine for months, they do tend to see higher-scoring first halves, especially against opponents who are tanking. That would be Indiana as the Pacers have nothing to gain from winning, and their defense has reflected it.
Their first halves since the All-Star break have gone 3-1 over this total with 127.0 points on average as a result. The Hornets will love exploiting that, especially since they owe the Pacers some revenge for two losses earlier this season. Those two meetings saw 124 and 118 points at halftime, so the combination of Charlotte running it up and Indiana giving no resistance should send this one well over the low early total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns Team Total Under 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net
The Suns have easily cleared this total in all three meetings against the weak Lakers defense so far this season, putting up 125, 114, and 132 points. But this version of the Suns is so far detached from the roster that put up those totals it’s wild. As currently constructed, Phoenix can’t score against anyone and has nobody to lead them offensively, averaging just 87.0 points per game since the All-Star break. That would be bad offense by the standards of 20 years ago, and I simply don’t care who they’re facing right now, I’m taking the team under whenever the Suns take the court.
NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Utah Jazz First Half Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ
This is an interesting matchup that should theoretically see no defense from either side, but it’s important to keep a close eye on the injury report. With Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George listed as questionable for tonight, Utah might be without their two best options to attack a Pelicans defense that should let pretty much everything through.
The Jazz shouldn’t defend anything here either, as two teams very close in the lottery odds race both try to lose at the same time. They’ve both been having early defensive issues all season, as New Orleans is 27th and Utah 29th in first half points allowed. If Utah’s best players are out there and both teams take advantage of the easy looks they’ll get, this one should fly over the first half total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida Gulf Coast/North Florida Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game has all the makings of a fast-paced shootout, especially if the home squad can get back to finding their range. North Florida is a wild team, with the second-worst adjusted defensive efficiency mark in the country, but also the second-most reliant team on three point production. The Ospreys fire the 7th-most three’s in the country, making them extremely volatile and therefore their totals can have a wide range of outcomes.
They’ve been stuck in a shooting slump for three games now, but last had their typical kind of production four games ago when they faced Gulf Coast and combined for 171 points. That was on the road, so being back at home should allow them to at least continue that kind of production. Gulf Coast struggles to guard the perimeter so they’ll give up three’s, but they’ll also get whatever they want against this horribly porous defense. With UNF allowing the 6th-fastest possession on defense, driving that tempo on their home floor should create the kind of up-tempo shootout that flies over this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-12 (+0.71 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
