Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Ayo Dosunmu Over 11.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 2:00 PM CT on Prime Video
I think the newest Wolf can continue to help this team in a key game today, as he already has plenty of experience in this matchup. This will be the fourth time Dosunmu has seen Orlando this season after three meetings in a Bulls uniform, and he’s done big things in the scoring column all three times. Point totals of 15, 18, and 17 were impressive, as were his shooting percentages in all three games. Dosunmu has been shooting it extremely well in a Wolves uniform too, having gone over this total in 6 of 9 games so far, so look for another solid contribution this afternoon.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida Gulf Coast +5.5 vs Central Arkansas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Gulf Coast is just on one of those March tournament runs where you have to keep backing them. Rumor is their coach Pat Chambers is in danger of losing his job since the Eagles spent so much in NIL this season and haven’t gotten much out of it. But they have a chance to fix that in the ASUN tournament and they’re doing the best they can so far.
What’s been impressive is the defense, and they’ll need it today against a Central Arkansas team that can really produce from beyond the arc. But the top-seeded Bears aren’t quite as scary as they seem, as the only blemish in their current 14-1 straight up run was a loss to FGCU. The Eagles also kept it to a one-possession game in the first meeting, so I see this coming down to the wire and I want to be taking the hook along with the key number of 5 in that scenario.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) North Carolina @ Duke -17.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN
Duke has been thinking about this game for weeks, ever since UNC hit the buzzer beater to win the first matchup. I know that because the Blue Devils have done nothing but wreck every ACC team in their path since that game, which UNC really had no business winning. The Heels were getting dominated for most of the game until an insane comeback got them the win, and I think Duke puts in a full 40 minutes this time. Duke is head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC, and it shows in their +18.8 average margin in conference games this season. UNC should be deflated here after losing Caleb Wilson for the season yesterday, and I think the Blue Devils will get the blood they’re out for.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Morehead St/Tennessee St Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Let’s punch the first Big Dance ticket of the season for someone in this game. It could go either way to be honest, as these two top seeds in the OVC split the season series with one meeting going to overtime. So it should be a close game, and that means foul game to the extreme as a tournament berth is on the line, padding points late in this one.
It might not matter, as these teams got into two very high-scoring affairs in the regular season, as Tennessee State was able to dictate an up-tempo style in both meetings. This is also a matchup of two old-school teams that don’t love the three-point line and produce a lot inside the arc. That means lots of easier buckets in a faster-paced game, and I think they clear this number that’s actually a discount from the posted totals in their regular season meetings.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-22 (-3.40 Units) – Recommend: Consider Fading
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
