Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Utah Jazz Over 226.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ
A lot of recognizable names will be missing from the starting lineups tonight, and that’s why this total has dropped significantly. But regardless of how much star power is on the court, several key things simply have to remain true. First is that the Jazz have zero interest in playing any defense, no matter what, as they are dead last in just about every major defensive metric.
Also, Golden State is going to fire a lot of three’s no matter who’s taking them, as the league’s top team in three-point attempts isn’t adopting a new game plan. These teams crushed this total in all three meetings this season, averaging 250.7 points in games that Steph Curry and Lauri Markkanen played. But bench players in meaningless games notoriously play no defense, the styles will be the same, and I think we can get over this discounted total tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Kentucky vs Wright State +1.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU
This line has been bouncing all over the place and flipping favorites in a spot where I just don’t understand the movement. Wright State is the clearly superior team, which they’ve proven all season by winning the Horizon regular season title, and in two wins against Northern Kentucky that admittedly were tight games. The Raiders are a team that can shoot the lights out though, and that’s a tough matchup for Northern Kentucky who sits 294th in effective field goal defense and 325th in three-point percentage defense.
The Norse have not been able to slow down that offense in either meeting, and after a high-possessions game yesterday, I don’t think they can pull this off against a rested team. With a chance to get a point and a half here I’ll definitely take it, but Wright State should be a clear favorite here and I expect them to win outright.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Towson vs Hofstra -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on CBSSN
March is a crazy time of year when anything can happen and teams come out of nowhere to shine in a small sample size environment. But this Hofstra program always seems to be contending year in and year out at the Colonial tournament, and the path has opened up for them this season.
Both top seeds went down over the weekend, giving Hofstra an opportunity to play for a ticket to the dance if they can get through this game. I think they do, and pretty easily, against a Towson team that they’ve proven they can handle. It’s just too much of a matchup advantage for the Pride here, who really box Towson in with their strengths against what the Tigers want to do.
Towson can’t shoot, ranked 343rd in effective field goal percentage, and it’s worse from three so they don’t attempt many. That forces them inside against a Hofstra defense that is 3rd nationally in two-point percentage defense, which shut them down in both meetings this season. This Hofstra program is just sneaky-good in the postseason, and I wouldn’t be shocked by another double-digit win over Towson tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Weber St/Eastern Washington Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The thing to watch in this Big Sky tournament is defense, or the lack thereof to be more specific. That’s a big change for this conference that used to have some excellent defenses, slow tempos, and grind-it-out games in this event. But it’s been a high-scoring year for the league thanks to very poor defense across the board, and these two teams are no different.
Both Weber St and Eastern Washington are outside the top-250 in adjusted defensive efficiency, along with outside the top-300 in effective field goal percentage defense. Neither can stop anything inside, with the Eagles 326th and the Wildcats 343rd in two-point percentage defense, which sets up easy buckets tonight as both offenses focus on scoring inside. Both play fairly up-tempo and are solid free-throw shooting teams which should come into play in a tightly lined game, so look for them to clear this total tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-20 (-5.05 Units) – Recommend: Definitely Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
