Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
You have to pay a significant amount of juice for this prop, but I’ll gladly do it at this number. Naz has gone for 18, 15, and 12 points in the three meetings with OKC this season, making this number pretty attractive from that standpoint. He also might be going up against a thinner Thunder frontcourt as Isaiah Hartenstein is questionable for this game. It’s also possible he’ll need to pick up the scoring load with Anthony Edwards listed as a gametime decision, so I like the matchup and history enough to absorb the juice here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Vanderbilt/Arkansas Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
Amazing performance by Vanderbilt yesterday to go wire-to-wire against Florida, who I consider to be the best team in the country. The Commodores couldn’t miss in that game, just like they couldn’t miss in the second half against Tennessee on Friday night. So if they’re shooting lights out right now, continuing that in the style of game that should unfold here is a recipe for lots of points.
Arkansas might be on their third straight game and fresh off OT, but they’re not slowing down for anyone. The Hogs will push tempo here, and whenever we see that against high level offensive opponents, it creates shootouts. The Dores are now up to 7th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, right behind Arkansas who’s 6th, so efficiency alone might send this over the total. But I see an up-tempo game that should match the metrics projections of getting into the 170’s.
Degenerates
World Baseball Classic USA/Dominican Republic Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FS1
I’ll have this on tonight while I’m filling out my brackets, and it should be another fun one. That’s always the case when this offense from the Dominican heads to the plate, as all of their games have cleared this total, with them doing all the work themselves in most cases. Paul Skenes gets the start for the US, which is their best case scenario against this powerhouse lineup, but even he should find some trouble and he can’t pitch all game. The US meanwhile should be able to tag Luis Severino and the DR relievers for plenty of hits and runs, so this might end up being a slugfest that flies over the total.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-15 (+1.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
