Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on MNMT
Books keep doing this, and I’m going to keep jumping in every time. If the Wizards are playing, and their opponent has a first half team total below what they give up on average of 63.1 points, then it had better be one of the league’s lesser offensive teams. Not OKC, who can look like the league’s most dangerous offense when they want to, and is arguably the most balanced. Even without Jalen Williams the Thunder are still dangerous, and should shred the league’s worst defense here. During this now 14-game tank-a-thon by Washington they’ve allowed 64.2 points before halftime, so I have to go with the over when numbers like this are offered.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) St Louis/Michigan Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:10 AM CT on CBS
To clarify: it’s the first round where you want unders in the first half of the early games. Now that it’s the second round, time to look to the over when you have two elite offensive teams like these squaring off. With both St Louis and Michigan crossing triple digits in their opening wins, I think it’s safe to say they’ve gotten comfortable with the shooting angles at this neutral site.
That probably shouldn’t be surprising for two of the absolute best shooting teams in the country, as Michigan ranks 7th in effective field goal percentage while St Louis is 2nd-best. This should also be an up-tempo affair as both teams are top-25 in adjusted tempo, and top-15 in shortest offensive possession length. Both teams have very good defensive numbers as well, but this is about pace combining with elite efficiency and that’s the recipe for lots of points this morning.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) TCU +11.5 vs Duke (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:15 PM CT on CBS
It’s generally a bad idea to bet based on what you saw last, but I can’t get the image of Duke being in a dog fight with a 16 seed out of my head. Siena had the Blue Devils on the ropes, and if they hadn’t gone scoreless for 6 minutes down the stretch we might be talking about the 3rd-ever victory by a 16 seed. That game is not an isolated incident for Duke either, this is about their injury situation that has been a problem throughout the postseason.
Regular season Duke ran roughshod through the ACC, beating conference opponents by 18.6 PPG. But after losing two key players that dropped to 5.7 PPG in the ACC tournament, and we’re talking about a down ACC this year. Now they face a Big12 opponent that matches up extremely well with them, as TCU has grown men on the inside that can be aggressive and physical with the shorthanded Blue Devils. If Duke was healthy I might be on the other side, but this is just too many points to lay against a quality opponent when you’ve shown your vulnerability due to injuries.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) VCU/Illinois Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:50 PM CT on CBS
VCU is much better defensively than Penn, so it’s not likely that Illinois hangs triple digits again tonight. But I highlighted this truly elite Illini offense as something that could carry them on a deep run in this tournament, and they might have found their early season form again. That’s bad news for the field and for VCU today, as this offense that is 2nd in adjusted efficiency has a path to going wild again today.
It’s the three-point shooting and offensive rebounding for me, as Illinois is either going to pile up fast points with made three’s or easy buckets by cleaning up the misses. VCU doesn’t have the size or physicality to prevent that strategy, but they do have an offense capable of keeping up as the Rams can spread the floor and shoot three’s. I think it’s telling that VCU’s games against other teams that made the tournament averaged 156.7 PPG while going 5-1 over this total, and I see the recipe for it again here.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) High Point/Arkansas Over 169 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on TBS
You’ll want to stay up for this one. On paper and stylistically, this is the kind of matchup that over bettors fantasize about. You have two excellent offenses that are elite in transition, push the pace like crazy, and are highly efficient overall. It’s also two defenses that have significant problems, namely High Point from an athletic standpoint and Arkansas in being able to stop what High Point loves to do.
The Razorbacks have an unbelievable amount of athletic talent, as they showed against Hawaii, and this High Point team was not challenged in that way by Wisconsin’s reliance on jump shooting. The Hogs will get whatever they want at the rim, but also be challenged by High Point’s pace so their weak two-point defense will be a factor. When I say there’s a path to lots of points here, I mean an empty 7-lane freeway, so I love the over here and will also be on the derivative totals below.
Bonus Bets (Odds via Caesars):
0.75 Unit – Arkansas Team Total Over 90.5 (-110)
0.5 Unit – High Point Team Total Over 78.5 (-110)
0.5 Unit – Arkansas First Half Team Total Over 43.5 (-110)
0.5 Unit – High Point First Half Team Total Over 36.5 (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-17 (+4.15 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
