Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Orlando Magic First Half Over 113.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports IN
This is just another preposterous splitting of the total by books, and turns into a strict numbers play because of it. I feel like I’d be a hero to sportsbooks if I sat them down and had a heart-to-heart about what they’re doing here, but then I wouldn’t be able to take advantage of totals like this.
There is absolutely no reason for the first half total to be below 50% of the full-game total, which sits at 233 tonight. This is a Pacers game, where there will be no late scramble, no threat of overtime, just Indiana doing everything they can to lose as a tanking team. But give the Pacers credit for actually trying early in games despite being 0-16 since the All-Star break, which tends to drive scoring in the first half before they quit coming out of the locker room.
This is also a perfect spot for Orlando to get right after dropping 4 straight, so they should run it up early against a team with no defensive capability. These teams have played first halves of 134 and 127 points in their two meetings, but are 1-1 against the full-game over, so the first half is the way to go here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder First Quarter Team Total Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK
The Thunder should be welcoming Jalen Williams back to the lineup here, and I think they do it in style against this shorthanded Sixers team. OKC has had their share of injury issues this season, but when fully healthy are as explosive as anyone offensively. So a Philly squad that is 25th in first quarter points allowed at home at 30.3 per game is ripe for the picking in this game.
When they’re on the road, the Thunder actually score a little better in opening quarters at 30.4 per game, and at full strength they should be even better. The Sixers just got back from a west coast road trip where they allowed 34 first quarter points to Utah, 33 to Sacramento, and 38 to Denver, so this defense is in dire straits. I think the Thunder, who are so much better offensively with Williams, make a statement in his return with a big opening frame tonight.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Utah Jazz First Half Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ
It’s not as egregious as the Indiana game tonight, but books have done it again here to a certain extent. With a full-game total at 230.5 and Utah actively trying to lose, there should theoretically be very little chance of late scrambles or overtime in this game. Toronto has dropped two frustrating games in a row, but those were not against actively tanking teams like the Jazz are.
The Raptors are also on a back-to-back here that makes it their third game in four nights, so defensive legs probably won’t be all there and a rested Jazz team can push tempo early. Utah is by far the best over team in home games, but to highlight their tanking approach, they’re scoring a full 3 points more before halftime than after. They also allow more in the first half than second, so with an advantageous number I’m forced to take the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-19 (+7.18 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
