Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Orlando Magic Over 230.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL
This is a game where nobody should be playing much defense. Sacramento because they don’t want to, and Orlando because they’ve simply forgotten how. That’s the biggest key here for me, as the Magic have gone from a reliable under team to one of the best over bets in the league.
A 15-8 run to the over since early February, including 8-2 to the over their past 10 games, has been fueled by a complete lack of defense. And if they have any self-respect after 6 straight losses including to lowly Indiana, the Magic will crush the Kings tonight which could lead to a blowout over. But their defense is far too shaky for me to believe Orlando is a safe spread bet, which makes the over the best play here.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Texas/Purdue Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on CBS
I’m looking for an efficiency-based over here as two elite offenses square off here. Say what you will about this Purdue team, but they can shoot it and that’s led to them now owning the top adjusted offensive efficiency mark in the country. The Boilermakers are extremely deadly from three with the 8th-best percentage in the country, and that’s where the Texas defense is the weakest.
The Longhorns will be able to score as well though, as they’re 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency and prefer to score inside which is Purdue’s defensive weakness. There’s obviously no Zach Edey to patrol the paint anymore, and that’s caused the Purdue defense to rank just 244th in two-point percentage allowed. This should not be an up-tempo affair by any means, but both teams take great care of the ball and don’t force turnovers, so clean possessions by two hyper-efficient offenses can send this over the total.
NCAA Tournament (0.25 Unit) Cooper Koch Over 10.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TBS
I really don’t feel like taking a stand on either Iowa or Nebraska in this game, and the total feels about right to me as well. But this prop stood out to me as a solid option, with Koch being an excellent shooter with good history against Nebraska. The two meetings this season saw the Iowa sharpshooter, who’s connecting at 40.4% from deep this season, score 10 and 18 points with plenty of shooting volume.
Nebraska is always willing to get into a three-point contest with their opponents, and give up the 5th-most production via the three-ball in the country. This number has actually come up a point since early in the week, unusual for such a niche player prop in a college game which suggests sharps see the same thing and Koch should have a nice game tonight.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Arizona Team Total Over 87 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on CBS
I love this Arizona team and think it’s probably their year, but this is still a tough hurdle for them. Arkansas is going to be their usual aggressive selves and push tempo, plus they might have the best scoring guard in this tournament, but how are they going to get stops here. The Hogs have shown most of the season and certainly last weekend that their interior defense can’t guard a parked car, and here comes the worst matchup they could ask for.
Arizona is not just the 4th-most efficient offense in the country, they do it all inside the arc as the Wildcats rank 358th nationally for the percentage of points they get from downtown. There are going to be too many easy buckets against the 275th-ranked two point defense, plus transition opportunities and free throws piling up for Arizona here, which tells me they’ll get to the 90’s or better tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Darius Acuff Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Acuff is going to do all he can to keep his team in the game tonight, plus make a statement on a national stage as he looks to improve his NBA draft stock. The opportunity will be there in this game as possessions will be maxed out between two very up-tempo offenses. And while Arizona has an elite defense, their commitment to drop coverage will give Acuff a lot of clean looks for his excellent pull-up game. So a guy that’s averaging 23.3 on the season and been on an absolute tear the past two months should be able to clear this prop number.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Josh Bell Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140; Odds via DraftKings): 2:05 PM CT on MASN
It’s Twins opening day, and as much as I hate this franchise sometimes, I just can’t help myself. The Minnesota lineup is so green that only two players have any at-bats against Orioles starter Trevor Rogers, and Bell has actually had a lot of success. Our new first baseman is batting 6-for-13 lifetime against Rogers, good for a .462 average and 1.077 OPS, so a rare bright spot in what might be a dismal season. At this juicy price point I’ll take a shot on Bell today and hopefully give myself something to cheer about if things get ugly.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-15 (+10.28 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
