Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ABC
These teams are too good defensively, and too banged up offensively, to justify a total this high. Smart money has driven it down a bit since we’re getting a matchup of top-5 defenses in the league here, as Detroit especially has had a very consistent defense all season. The Wolves are much better defensively at Target Center, and in high-profile spots like this game today.
That’s what has given them the best record to the under in home games, while Detroit has been a profitable under bet all season. I also think the injuries are too significant today, with Anthony Edwards and possibly Ayo Dosunmu and/or Jaden McDaniels out for the Wolves. And Detroit isn’t just missing Cade Cunningham, as their next two top scorers Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris have iffy statuses today, so I’m just not seeing the offense to reach a total at this level.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Illinois/Iowa First Half Under 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:09 PM CT on TBS
These are two highly efficient offenses, but I think the tempo and familiarity will help to keep scoring down in the first half here. Iowa is going to drag this game to a standstill with their 361st-ranked tempo that runs the 3rd-slowest possessions on offense nationally. But Illinois isn’t in a hurry to run either, ranked 286th in tempo, and are very happy to play in the half court to make use of their massive size.
The Illini also force the fewest turnovers in the country, so Iowa will be free to bleed the clock all game. These teams both being from the Big10 gives them familiarity with how the other will play, and the regular season meeting this year had only 59 points at halftime. Iowa has shown the ability to contain a talented offense with massive size advantages, so I think this is another quiet start tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Illinois -6.5 vs Iowa (-110; Odds via BetMGM)
I think this is midnight for what qualifies as Cinderella these days, as Iowa is really in a tough matchup here. Illinois is playing excellent defense right now, particularly from the perimeter as they’ve held three straight good shooting opponents to 30% or below from deep in the tournament. Iowa is going to have to replicate what they did against another team built like Illinois is when they took down Florida, but I’m sure the Illini are using that as a cautionary tale today. Illinois has the personnel to exert their will in all phases of this game, and I think they do on the way to a 4th straight cover in the dance.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Arizona Team Total Over 80 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:49 PM CT on TBS
Ok, hurdle cleared, and in a big way too as Arizona finally got past the Sweet 16 with Tommy Lloyd by smoking Arkansas. The same advantages they had in that game, they’ll have here, and I think they can leverage them for another big night on the scoreboard. The Wildcats just want to play inside with their size and athleticism advantages over just about every team, including Purdue today.
The Boilermakers are really struggling to guard inside this season, ranked 249th in two-point percentage defense, which is only marginally better than what Arizona got to see against Arkansas on Thursday. And if the Wildcats are able to dictate tempo here, transition points against a slower Purdue defense will add up quickly. Highly efficient offenses have given Purdue trouble all season, especially when they have elite athleticism like Arizona does, so look for the Wildcats to run it up again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 23-11 (+8.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
