Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat Over 246.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock
It’s another ridiculous Miami total tonight, but I don’t know what else to do with this team that simply can’t defend right now. Yesterday proved it better than anything as they fell to the tanking Pacers, completely unable to get stops in giving up 135 points. Now the Heat have to play a back-to-back with travel, and face an offense that’s on the rise.
Philly is finally healthy, and we’ve seen what they can do when this roster is at full strength, so I think they’ll be able to score at will against a bad and tired defense. We’ve yet to get a matchup of these teams at full strength this season thanks to all the injuries for both of them, but the two meetings so far have gone for 244 and 241 nonetheless. I think this is a great spot for the Sixers to keep building with their real lineup, while the league-leading tempo of the Heat creates plenty of opportunities to get over this total.
NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Utah Jazz First Half Over 118 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ
Books did it again, and I will never shy away from maximizing these opportunities. They took a game with essentially no hope of it being close down the stretch or going to overtime, and split the total with a higher number for the second half. Not only that, but they did it in a very over-friendly situation with a Jazz home game, which have seen the most overs of any arena this season.
Utah absolutely cannot stop anything right now, giving up 67.8 first half points per game in this 5-game losing streak, so the Cavaliers should take full advantage to run it up early. But this game is more likely to slow down late as Cleveland sits on their lead, plus Utah tends to score and allow more before halftime. So the split of the total makes no sense and I’m jumping in on the discounted first half number.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Chicago Cubs Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
It’s a beautiful spring day at Wrigley with a solid wind blowing out, I can’t believe this total isn’t double digits. That should be almost automatic unless there are elite starting pitchers going today, which there are not. The beauty of being only a few games into the season is we know full well that backend starters are taking the mound for every team today, and that should spell trouble for a team like the Angels who have poor pitching to begin with.
LA’s pitching woes, particularly in the bullpen, finally materialized over the weekend with 20 runs allowed in 2 games, and are going to be a problem all season long. The Cubs lineup should jump all over the number 5 starter Ryan Johnson today, and then keep punishing the bad and used up bullpen. But the Angels will contribute here as well, especially as a fly ball team in these wind conditions, so look for double digit runs to be no problem at the friendly confines tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Francisco Giants Team Total Under 3.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on FS1
Not a good showing for the Giants to start the season, managing one single run against the Yankees in three games. Until this team proves they can hit, which usually seems to be their weakness, I’ll be looking for spots like this to fade their offensive capabilities. Especially when the price is right like tonight, as the Giants can triple their season-long run production and I’d still get paid at a plus-money return.
The Giants going down the coast to Petco where runs are typically very scarce this time of year gives me even more confidence. The pitching matchup they’ll face tonight against Walker Buehler is a big question mark, but he has great numbers in limited action against this San Fran lineup, plus the Padres have an excellent bullpen and elite closer. So at this number and this price, I have to look to fade the Giants offense until I’m proven wrong.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-8 (+7.53 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
