Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
These teams are both crushing overs right now and over the course of the season, but for different reasons as the Pittsburgh offense is elite while Houston’s pitching is awful. The Pirates are 58% to the over so far this season with the second-best average margin to the total, and have hit the over in 8 of their past 10 games. Houston is also 58% to the over, and have seen 7 of their past 10 go over, so this matchup that has produced 16 runs on Tuesday and 20 runs yesterday are no fluke.
I think it continues tonight, and on a total that is held down by the presence of supposedly high-level starting pitchers. Jared Jones is a top talent for the Pirates, but he was knocked around by the Triple-A Twins in his first start back in the majors, and is up against a strong offense against right-handers here. The Astros are running out Kai-Wei Teng who’s been converted from the bullpen, and he’s yet to face an offense of this caliber. Pittsburgh is a top-5 offense against righties, and trail only the Dodgers in a lot of metrics, so they should jump on Teng and the league’s most generous bullpen to turn this into another slugfest.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Prime Video
This Lynx team is really good, sneakily so, and I don’t think the market has caught up yet. Something tells me they’re not getting enough credit with Napheesa Collier still on the shelf until mid-June, but they’re destroying expectations without her. Minnesota is the best ATS team in the WNBA at 8-1, and are blowing past the number with a plus-11.6 ATS margin.
They’re heating up too, with 5 straight double-digit wins, 4 of which have been by 15 or more points, and should be incentivized to blow out another opponent tonight. It’s a Commissioner’s Cup game against the Valkyries so margin of victory matters, and the Lynx are definitely hungry for that prize this season. Golden State is good, just not great, with a lot of wins that look soft in hindsight and convincing losses when they meet top teams. With the Lynx being an elite home team and leading the league in net rating, I think they cover this short number pretty easily.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-15 (-1.48 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
