While the exact schedule won’t be released for another week or so, the Minnesota Vikings know their 2026 opponents. They’ll need to overcome familiar foes like the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Kevin O’Connell on third-and-one. But overall, Minnesota’s schedule looks like it’s shaping up to be a fairly easy route.
Is that really the case, though?
Based on Warren Sharp’s Strength of Schedule rankings, the Vikings fall smack dab in the middle at 16. Sharp bases his projection on opponents’ projected win totals, not their final record in 2025, taking into account roster and coaching changes. Here’s a look at Minnesota’s 2026 opponents, along with their corresponding projected win totals.
Vikings Opponents (Projected Win Totals)
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Chicago Bears (9.5)
Detroit Lions (10.5)
Green Bay Packers (10.5)
Atlanta Falcons (7.5)
Carolina Panthers (6.5)
Buffalo Bills (10.5)
Miami Dolphins (4.5)
Washington Commanders (7.5)
Indianapolis Colts (8.5)
Away
At Chicago Bears (9.5)
At Detroit Lions (10.5)
At Green Bay Packers (10.5)
At New Orleans Saints (7.5)
At Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.5)
At New England Patriots (9.5)
At New York Jets (5.5)
At San Francisco 49ers (10.5)
Outside of the divisional opponents, there aren’t a lot of big, scary monsters on the docket. Out of the top five teams with the best Super Bowl odds, Minnesota only plays one in the Buffalo Bills, at home. They avoid the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs. The only other non-NFC North teams on the schedule projected to have a winning record are the San Francisco 49ers and then the New England Patriots, the latter of whom, let’s just say, have some things to work through.
Washington could be a bit of a wild card depending on Jayden Daniels’ development, and the Indianapolis Colts may not even have Vikings legend Daniel Jones healthy by the time the teams play. Even if Jones is good to go, as long as the Colts don’t rush out to at least a 34-0 lead, Minnesota should be able to take care of business at home.
Not so bad, right? They get a few bones thrown to them in the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins, and they also face a perennially mediocre division with the NFC South. So far, things seem favorable for a team that went 9-8 last year without any consistent quarterback play. With that problem hopefully resolved in 2026, double-digit wins should be in Minnesota’s crosshairs.
However, the North could complicate matters.
All three other divisional teams are projected to have winning records. As with every other year, that won’t mean much, and every game will be a grind regardless of the win-loss columns. It’s easy to see any of the division games going either way for the Vikings, who went an impressive 4-2 against the North last year.
It’s probably reasonable to assume the Vikings will split most of these series, taking home three wins and three losses. That means Minnesota can ideally go at least 7-4 against the rest of the schedule to reach 10 wins. It doesn’t feel like a huge lift considering only three opponents – or actually four, including the eventual 8-9 winner of the NFC South – are likely to be playoff teams.
Ultimately, by the numbers, the Vikings got an average draw, but the schedule theoretically seems much easier. The division is tough, but the Green Bay Packers will never be a cupcake team, no matter the situation. Dan Campbell also isn’t ever going to just roll over and die. It’s just how these things in this division tend to go.
Otherwise, the darkest clouds on the schedule have some significant silver linings. Buffalo has to come here. The 49ers will likely be down to their fourth-string everything by mid-October. And the Patriots, offseason off-field issues notwithstanding, were huge overachievers in 2025.
No NFL team or season boils down to just one element, but Minnesota’s season may hinge upon newly acquired free agent Kyler Murray. The defense is likely to remain a top-10 unit under Brian Flores, and the missing ingredient on offense appears to be solved. The Arizona Cardinals probably helped Murray pack on his way out of town, so there’s no guarantee he’s the answer. Still, the former No. 1-overall pick may have a few tricks up his sleeve.
Whether or not O’Connell can get the best out of his new signal-caller may be the difference between 7-10 and 10-7. The combination of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer willed their way to a winning record, somehow capping the season on a five-game win streak. With Murray at the helm, things should be a bit steadier.
It’s a crucial year for the Vikings, who need 2026 to go well to save a lot of jobs. O’Connell certainly isn’t on the hot seat at the moment, but zero playoff wins in five seasons will heat it up quickly. Luckily for Minnesota, this year’s schedule seems well-suited for a strong push to put those concerns to bed.
