Despite turmoil at quarterback and injuries along the offensive line, the Minnesota Vikings still finished last season 9-8. Kevin O’Connell, the former NFL quarterback, deferred to the run game during the win streak. In doing so, he relied on Brian Flores’ stingy defense to take over games.
The change in philosophy was admirable for a coach who had previously developed a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. But he was unable to develop J.J. McCarthy into a reliable starter in 2025. Meanwhile, the quarterback the team moved on from, Sam Darnold, led the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
Even though he righted the ship by swallowing his pride and relying on the run game and sound defense, the pressure is on for O’Connell in 2026. He has found success in the regular season, going 43-25 in four seasons. Still, he has yet to win a playoff game, even though the Vikings were favored against the New York Giants in 2022 and the Los Angeles Rams in 2024.
The regular-season success wasn’t enough to save Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s job, who had served as Vikings general manager since they hired O’Connell. Adofo-Mensah’s mistakes were more clearly defined, with underwhelming success across four drafts. Minnesota’s free-agent spending spree last year ultimately produced overpaid, underperforming veterans.
O’Connell may not be on the hot seat entering the 2026 season, though. Ownership involved him in the team’s search for a new general manager, which ultimately led to the hiring of Nolan Teasley, a well-respected front-office executive with the Seattle Seahawks since 2013. If the Wilfs were seriously considering moving on from O’Connell entering this season, would they have given him any say in a general manager who would likely outlast him in 2027?
It should be noted that O’Connell agreed to a contract extension shortly after the conclusion of the 2025 season. Adofo-Mensah also signed an extension, but not for another four months. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Vikings can’t fire O’Connell. Still, the financial ramifications make it less likely that the Wilfs would actively seek to terminate him unless Minnesota has an extremely poor record this year.
But just because the Vikings aren’t likely to fire O’Connell doesn’t mean this upcoming season is any less important for him. Over the past 45 years, only 11 head coaches have made it five years with one team without a playoff win. Dan Reeves finally won a playoff game in Year 6 and led the 1986 Denver Broncos to the Super Bowl. Sam Wyche finally won a playoff game in Year 5, leading the 1988 Cincinnati Bengals to the big game. Both coaches ultimately lost.
Perhaps former Vikings coach Dennis Green was the most successful of the bunch. He didn’t win a playoff game until his sixth season. One year later, in 1998, he led Minnesota to a 15-1 record. However, the Vikings lost in overtime to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game. Reeves was Atlanta’s head coach that day.
The other eight coaches on the list found minimal success beyond Year 4. It’s rare for coaches to stick around without postseason success. O’Connell appears to have a handle on leadership and has shown he can set up an effective offensive game plan. But in a results-oriented business, he may only have a few more opportunities to prove he can win when it matters.
But the successes of Reeves, Wyche, and Green only took them so far. None of them ever won the Super Bowl. That’s where the true threshold of Year 5 may lie.
Thirty-six head coaches have won the Super Bowl, and 31 of them won within five years of their team hiring them. Three of those five exceptions were Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, and John Madden, all of whom were hired before the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Since Noll’s last championship with the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers, only Bill Cowher (14th season) and Andy Reid (seventh season) have produced their first title after Year 5.
Complicating matters for O’Connell is the uncertainty at quarterback. Missing the playoffs in 2025 may not have stung as much if McCarthy looked the part of a franchise quarterback. This offseason, O’Connell has stated McCarthy and Kyler Murray will be battling for the starting quarterback spot.
Compare that with Cowher, who won his Super Bowl in Ben Roethlisberger’s second season, and Reid, who won his first title in Mahomes’ third season, and the odds are stacked against O’Connell.
O’Connell survived McCarthy’s struggles in his first year as a starter. Can he salvage the situation by elevating Murray back to Pro Bowl quarterback status and also help the Vikings win in the playoffs?
The Vikings may not be judging O’Connell solely on the 2026 season, so he may be around in 2027 no matter how the team finishes. But history has shown that most head coaches figure it out by Year 5. If O’Connell is going to break through in Minnesota, it feels like it must happen this season.
