Considering his age, contract situation, salary-cap implications, and the off-field issues surrounding Josh Jacobs, it’s not far-fetched to think he could be entering his final season in Green Bay. Running backs frequently experience rapid decline as they approach age 30. If the Packers decide it’s time to get younger and cheaper in the backfield, 2026 could be Jacobs’ last season in green and gold.
The 2019 first-round pick is under contract with the Packers through the 2027 season. His cap hit is $14.5 million in 2026 and rises to $16.6 million in 2027, which is projected to account for about 5.15% of Green Bay’s salary cap. Notably, the Packers have a relatively easy way out of the deal. Releasing Josh Jacobs next offseason would leave just over $3 million in dead money.
That’s a significant cap commitment for a running back nearing his 30s who averaged the second-fewest yards per carry of his career last season. He also ranked 37th in total EPA generated among the 49 running backs who logged at least 100 rushing attempts.
However, it’s important to add some context. Green Bay ranked 19th in run-block win rate last season. That’s a better ranking than the eye test might suggest. Still, Jacobs often had to create yards on his own when the offensive line failed to sustain its blocks.
Green Bay has several expensive decisions coming up. Tucker Kraft is due for a new contract. Meanwhile, Edgerrin Cooper, Evan Williams, and Javon Bullard will all enter the final year of their rookie deals next offseason. It’s also hard to believe the Packers would let Xavier McKinney play out his contract without giving him a new extension. Meanwhile, Jordan Love‘s cap hit will jump from $36.1 million in 2026 to $42.4 million in 2027.
With so many important decisions to make over the next 18 months, it’s fair to wonder how much the Packers will be willing to spend to keep Jacobs, especially at one of the NFL’s most replaceable positions. If he returns in 2027, I believe it will be on a restructured contract or after taking a pay cut. It’s hard to envision Green Bay bringing him back under his current deal given the financial commitments that are quickly piling up — to say nothing of potential complications with his legal status or with the NFL front office.
On the other hand, one factor working in Jacobs’ favor is that Green Bay doesn’t have a clear long-term plan at running back. That role was supposed to belong to MarShawn Lloyd, but there is no evidence yet that he can overcome his injury issues and stay healthy. Hopefully, he does. Still, as things stand today, he’s the only running back on the roster who could realistically be viewed as a long-term option.
I don’t expect the Packers to be active in the running back market next offseason. The free-agent class doesn’t look particularly appealing, and it raises an interesting question: Would Brian Gutekunst really be willing to move on from Jacobs without having a reliable replacement in place? Even if his current contract is expensive, weakening the running back room without a clear solution would be a risky move.
Ultimately, much of this could come down to what Lloyd does in 2026. If he stays healthy and proves he can produce, even in a limited role, I’d expect Brian Gutekunst to lean toward moving on from Josh Jacobs. As things stand today, though, there are simply more factors working against Jacobs’ long-term future in Green Bay than in his favor.
