The NFL schedule release is made out to be more of an event than it truly is, considering we already know all of the opponents; we just don’t know the order. Still, it’s fun to see the small ramifications that manifest as a result of the lineup.
Today, we are going to consider every ramification of the schedule and tier, and rank all 17 games by toughness. All games are tiered, then ranked within their tiers.
Tier 1: Just Go .500
Week 16: at Chicago Bears – Christmas Day
At Soldier Field on a short week in December is an extremely harsh setup. This game is also likely to have major division and playoff implications. Christmas is going to be miserable for whichever fanbase loses this game.
Week 7: at Detroit Lions
The Packers have had a few successful trips to Ford Field recently. Still, that doesn’t mean a trip to the Motor City won’t be one of the toughest tests every season. The Packers will also be at a major rest disadvantage. The Lions will be coming off a bye, and Green Bay will be on a semi-short week after playing on Sunday Night Football in Week 6.
Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills – Sunday Night Football
Going against Josh Allen is always a tough test, and Winter Soldier Josh Allen is on another level. Still, we don’t know how he will fare under the lights in the elements in the Frozen Tundra. This will be Allen’s first trip to Lambeau since his rookie season, a game played in much more pleasant conditions in September. Private Allen did not fare well in that contest.
Week 9: at New England Patriots
There are a few unknowns with the Patriots heading into the season. First, the Mike Vrabel situation. Second, it’s still a question of whether their run to the Super Bowl was just an all-time lucky season of schedule breaks in the regular season and playoffs, or if they are truly a force to be reckoned with for the next several seasons.
We know the Patriots are good, but we don’t know how good. Green Bay will be on the road, but they will be coming off a mini-bye playing on Thursday the week before.
Tier 2: Home Divisional Dog Melees
Week 5: vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears game at Lambeau may be the most anticipated all season, and maybe one of the most anticipated regular-season games in several years. It likely will be the game that Micah Parsons returns if he starts the season on PUP.
It will also involve Chicago traveling to Lambeau in a game where the Packers will be looking to set the story straight after blowing commanding leads in their final two matchups last season. Meanwhile, the Bears will be looking to defend their NFC North title and show that those two victories were no fluke.
Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions
If both teams are still fighting for playoff position, this game could be in the top tier. However, because of the unknowns around the Week 18 games, we’re sticking it in this section. Nonetheless, this is a fun game to end the season.
Tier 3: regular-season wildcards
Week 11: at Los Angeles Rams – Thanksgiving Eve
This is one of the more bizarre setups for a game since COVID. The Packer will be traveling to Los Angeles for a Wednesday night Thanksgiving Eve game. Both teams will be coming off a bye… but it’s only two days longer than a normal week?
The whole thing is bizarre to me, and I don’t know how the teams will come out. Still, the Rams have an outstanding roster and don’t have to travel. However, per usual at SoFi, they likely won’t have a real home-field advantage because of all the Packers fans in the crowd. Matt LaFleur has also owned Sean McVay.
Week 1: at Minnesota Vikings
I have no clue what to think of the Vikings this season. They were okay(?) last season, finishing with a winning record. However, they didn’t feel good about their quarterback situation. They added Kyler Murray, who will likely take over for J.J. McCarthy. Still, given Murray’s historic inconsistencies as a starter, that’s to be determined.
In Week 1, the Packers have the advantage of continuity. It’ll be Kyler’s first game under Kevin O’Connell, but that could also work in Minnesota’s favor, because they have the element of the unknown. It is also in Minnesota, and Micah Parsons is likely to miss the Week 1 game. His presence would help slow Murray down in the backfield.
Week 10: vs. Minnesota Vikings
For this game at Lambeau, Minnesota will be on a short week heading into Week 10 because of a Monday Night Football game the week before, and Parsons should be playing. Therefore, Week 1 gets the nod as the tougher game over Week 10. However, both Vikings games will be extremely tough.
Tier 4: Tough Rodeos
Week 17: vs. Houston Texans – Monday Night Football
Week 6: vs. Dallas Cowboys – Sunday Night Football
Both these games will be tough for opposite reasons. The Texans game will be a brutal defensive matchup in the January Lambeau elements. The Cowboys game will be a fall track meet.
Facing the Texans’ defense in January is a bit more daunting than Dallas’ high-powered offense in October. Both teams will also have a rest advantage over Green Bay as they both play on Thursday, the week before coming to Lambeau.
Tier 5: The NFC South
Week 4: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 7: vs. Carolina Panthers – Thursday Night Football
Week 3: vs. Atlanta Falcons – Thursday Night Football
Week 13: at New Orleans Saints
All of these teams were middling last year, and we expect a similar outcome this year. None of these games will be easy, but none will be much tougher than the others. Two are road games, and two are short-week games.
The main determining factor was quarterback stability. Green Bay will also get a few extra days off before they head to New Orleans because of the Thanksgiving Eve game the week prior.
Tier 6: The Other Side of the AFC East
Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
Old friends Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley have gutted this roster in their first offseason with the Dolphins. However, I expect their return to Lambeau to be circled on the calendar, and they’ll have the guys extra ready to go.
Week 2: at New York Jets
Just get through this game with a W and no early-season casualties to the MetLife turf before the short week.
