Every team in the NFC North has won the division since the Green Bay Packers last claimed it. It’s a well-known fact that lingers in Titletown.
Green Bay’s first goal this year will be to win the division. What’s the worst-case scenario, though?
A last-place finish isn’t a far-fetched idea.
The mere notion of Green Bay finishing in the basement of the division, especially given the current roster, may cause some to scoff. But dismiss the notion at your own peril. It’s less about what the Packers have and more about what everyone else in the division is doing.
It’d be hard to argue the biggest move made by any team in the division this offseason was the Minnesota Vikings landing quarterback Kyler Murray.
The quarterback play in Minneapolis was putrid last year. Despite that, the Vikings still finished 9-8 and were just a half-game behind Green Bay. (Granted, the Packers sat their starters for the second matchup.) But now the Vikings have added Murray, who has had his ups and downs in Arizona but is a clear upgrade over whatever the hell J.J. McCarthy was last season.
Meanwhile, Green Bay finished second in the NFC North last year, behind only the Chicago Bears and barely ahead of Minnesota and the Detroit Lions. FanDuel has the Lions as the favorite to win the division at +145. That’s the same Lions team that technically finished in last place in the division a year ago.
Detroit didn’t make any shocking upgrades to the roster in the offseason. Instead, by finishing last in the division last year, they get matched up with three other last-place teams from 2025. Plus, their injury luck last year was atrocious. If that even adjusts to the mean, it’ll be a different story.
The Packers are second in the odds to win the division at +270, but it’s not too far ahead of the Bears at +310.
All of this suggests a division that should be a slugfest. You could make a fairly easy case for every team to claim the North. The worst-case scenario for the Packers is pretty clear.
Green Bay starts the season on the road in Minnesota. Week 1 is still two months away, but have no fear, the odds are already out. The Packers are a slight one-point favorite over the Vikings. In other words, it’s a complete toss-up.
The doomsday scenario for the Packers this year would be starting 0-1, then stumbling in one of the next three games against the New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those last two aren’t layups, so a 2-2 start – or worse! – isn’t out of the question.
Nobody likes talking about worst-case scenarios before the year even starts, but it’s worth noting what could happen if things don’t go according to plan.
A 2-2 start with three straight games against Chicago, the Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit would really ramp up the pressure on Green Bay. It would already be 0-1 in the division, with two more heavy hitters on deck after the first four weeks. Keep in mind all of these will likely be played without Micah Parsons, who is expected to be on the PUP list in September and could miss half the season or more.
That injury alone is the glaring indicator of some of the issues Green Bay could have.
The Packers didn’t make a major move at edge rusher this offseason. They drafted Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton in the fourth round. Still, expecting him to change the landscape as a rookie isn’t fair to the former Nittany Lion.
Lukas Van Ness will have to step up for the group to have even a puncher’s chance. And fans have been expecting Van Ness to finally step up for literal years now.
Everyone knows how important it is to get pressure on the opposing quarterback. Allowing Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray extra time in the pocket is a recipe for disaster. Three of Green Bay’s divisional games come in the first seven weeks, one against each rival. That means the Vikings, Bears, and Lions will, in all likelihood, get at least one crack at the Packers without Parsons.
How else could a last-place finish be in the cards for the Packers?
The NFC North has Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rome Odunze, and plenty of other daunting wide receivers. The Packers are rolling the dice a bit by banking on Keisean Nixon to hold down the fort as the top cornerback. They’ll hope second-round rookie Brandon Cisse steps up at some point in 2026, but it’s totally reasonable if he needs a good bit of runway.
Going against that caliber of wide receivers isn’t easy regardless of who you have at cornerback. Given the lack of star play at the position for the Packers, it could lead to disaster.
Saying the Packers could finish last in the NFC North sounds like an offseason take as hot as the summer sidewalk. Bleacher Report, or at least one writer from the outlet, is predicting just that, though. Take a look at the formidable teams in this division, though, and you’ll see this unlikely scenario isn’t quite as unlikely as you’d hope.
