A shirtless Anthony Edwards sat in his hotel room at the Ritz-Carlton in downtown Los Angeles after the Minnesota Timberwolves advanced past the Los Angeles Lakers with a 103-96 Game 5 win.
Edwards finished the game shooting 5 of 19 from the floor and 0 of 11 from deep — a performance that symbolized Minnesota’s production against LA. A fan sitting courtside called Edwards out for his shooting splits.
“And y’all finna lose,” Edwards responded. “Go home. Beat the traffic.”
The Timberwolves stunned Paul Pierce and the 10-person ESPN panel, all of whom picked LA to win the series. Minnesota used that underdog mentality to fuel its first-round upset. And one year later, the Wolves find themselves in a similar situation. Only this time, the team they are playing — the Denver Nuggets — will require much more than an underdog mindset to send them home.
“We shot 7-for-47 from three, and we beat Luka and LeBron,” Edwards continued from his hotel room after Game 5. “I think they’re the best closers in the game, so who the f— are we worried about?”
Edwards had that confident, “it’s us vs. the world” mindset, and rightfully so. After all, the Wolves did make their second-straight run to the Western Conference Finals. However, LA’s roster wasn’t ready for a legitimate playoff run, and Steph Curry only played 13 minutes in Game 1 of the second round against Minnesota before injuring his hamstring and missing the rest of that five-game series.
The Wolves became the first team since 2019 to make back-to-back Conference Finals, but they got there by driving a rusty hatchback on an abnormally smooth road. If they want to make it three straight trips, the Wolves will need a vehicle that can withstand the unpaved, bumpy terrain that traverses the Rocky Mountains.
Outside of Luka Dončić and LeBron James, LA simply didn’t have the firepower to make it more of a series against the Wolves. J.J. Redick was so desperate that in Game 3 at Target Center, he played the same lineup for the entire second half. A 40-year-old James played 46 minutes that night, Dončić also played 46 minutes and scored 38 points, but LA lost 116-113 as the Wolves outscored them 32-19 in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota shot 44% from the floor and 37% from deep during all five games against LA.
The hand that the standings dealt the Wolves in the postseason last year shouldn’t detract too much from the accomplishment of being a final-four team. But it is prudent to bring it up now because the hand the Wolves have been dealt this time around isn’t the nuts. It features a Joker right on top that could force them to fold.
Minnesota finished the regular season with the same record it did last year (49-33), once again good for sixth in the West. The Nuggets finished third, so obviously Las Vegas is favoring them to win, but the line is pretty lopsided (DEN -350).
Players probably aren’t — and shouldn’t be — too concerned with or aware of the gambling odds. But that ESPN panel is different. It sparked something in Edwards and the Wolves last season, and it will likely do so again this season.
ESPN writers picked Denver to win the series in 5-7 games with a 12-0 tally.
The Wolves were an emotionally charged, moody, and sometimes downright bad team this season. They fluctuated from euphoric wins to dark losses far more often than a legitimate championship team should. The Wolves grew disconnected when things got hard, and the vibes were low. In February, Gobert said the team lacked accountability.
“I’m just talking straight effort,” Gobert said after the Wolves lost 119-115 at home to the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 6. “I’m not even getting to the basketball side of things, like … mistakes are a part of the game, but the effort to me for a team that wants to play for a championship, it’s unacceptable.”
Denver, meanwhile, has remained a much more consistently productive and mature team while dealing with more injury trouble than Minnesota. Nikola Jokić missed 16 straight games, Aaron Gordon missed 46 games, and Cam Johnson missed 28 games. The Nuggets had their faults and gut-punch losses. Still, they’ve been a dependably elite offensive team, with a rotation much deeper than in years past.
For the Wolves to survive the terrain of a seven-game series against Denver and get that Joker card out of their deck, they need to play at a level they struggled to reach all year. And that begins with greater attention to detail on defense.
Behind an All-Star campaign from Jamal Murray, another MVP-level season by Jokić, and key depth additions such as Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valančiūnas, and Bruce Brown, Denver led the NBA this season in offensive rating (121.2). The Nuggets constantly keep the ball moving — they also led the league in overall 3-point percentage, corner 3-point percentage, and non-corner 3-point percentage.
The Wolves must remain on a string defensively. Get caught ball watching, and Denver will make you pay. Minnesota’s defense ranked tenth in the league after Mar. 1. They finished with the eighth-ranked defense on the season. Even without Jaden McDaniels in the lineup down the stretch, the Wolves tightened their screws defensively.
But after Mar. 1, they ranked 21st in offensive rating. That is largely because the Wolves were injured. Edwards missed 10 games, but he was a full participant in practice on Tuesday. Julius Randle dealt with back spasms. Jaden McDaniels missed seven games with tendinopathy in his left knee. And Naz Reid battled through a nagging shoulder injury that caused him to shoot 27% from three over his final 27 games.
Because of that, Minnesota’s margin for error was razor-thin as it limped toward the playoffs. Despite a feel-good week to get the vibes back up to close the regular season, the Wolves’ margin for error against Denver will remain on a thin edge.
Ideally, the Wolves will develop a successful plan to slow down Jokić. But odds are, they will have to execute well offensively and hope shots fall to keep pace with Denver. The best way for Minnesota to do that is by playing fast, which it has no problem doing.
Denver ranked 20th in pace this season, 29th in opponent points per 100 transition plays, and 24th in offensive transition frequency.
Chris Finch should be looking for his players to speed the Nuggets up as much as possible. Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu will lead that charge. They were X-factors the last time the Wolves were in Denver and will be again this series. Terrence Shannon Jr., should he get minutes, also loves to push the pace.
Doing that will not only create easier buckets for the Wolves but also tire Jokić out more quickly, which could be the best defense they throw at him.
If Edwards can boast about a first-round series win this year, he probably won’t be able to do it after a horrible offensive performance like the Wolves had in Game 5 against LA. To take down Denver, the Wolves must execute at a consistently high level on both ends of the court. We still don’t know if they are capable of doing that.
The underdog persona elevates the Wolves, but that motivation will only take them so far this year.
