An impressively thorough post on Reddit’s Minnesota Vikings subreddit (/r/minnesotavikings) detailed what needs to happen for the Vikings to make the playoffs, including how the next four games for the Vikings, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Redskins and Green Bay Packers need to play out.
The author, who goes by the username ADefiniteDescription, acknowledges the possibility of the Vikings winning the NFC North, but because of tiebreakers with the Detroit Lions would require a combination of a 1-3 record (or worse) from the Lions and a 4-0 record from the Vikings.
Because the Falcons and Buccaneers both have conference tiebreakers over the Vikings, Minnesota must finish with strictly more total wins than one of those two teams if the final wild card spot comes down to a contest between Minnesota and the second-place NFC South team.
Washington also has a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Vikings, so the best scenario would either be for them to win out and take the division, putting Minnesota up against a flailing Giants team (where they, in this scenario, lose two games) who lost the head-to-head competition to the Vikings in Week 4 before going on their impressive run.
Green Bay is also competing for a wild card spot with Minnesota, but if the Vikings win out, it would necessarily mean a Packers loss because they are scheduled to play in Week 16. That would force Green Bay into seven losses and put them below Minnesota. In summary, as the author puts it:
SUMMARY
The likely paths to the playoffs are the following:
- Win out
AND ONE OF THESE:
- Detroit Lions lose 3 games
OR:
- New York Giants lose 2 games
OR:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose 2 games
OR:
- Washington Redskins lose 2 games
I’m not sure that’s quite accurate, as a 10-6 Vikings team should get in before a 9-6-1 Redskins team—Washington losing one more game would cap their wins at nine and the Vikings would win out over them despite Washington’s tiebreaker. Thanks to @PWilka for pointing this out to me on Twitter.
In a world where all of these teams generate nine wins (going 9-7, except Washington, who go 9-6-1), the Vikings lose out because of conference tiebreakers. Either Green Bay or Detroit wins the division, depending on how their division games against the Bears and Vikings go.
If the Packers actually go 8-8 in this scenario, Tampa Bay or Atlanta is the next team to go instead of the Vikings for the reasons mentioned above.
After that, it’s the Vikings’ turn because of the tiebreaker against the Giants.
Again, check out their post, where they go into more detail for all the games each competitor team will have to play. Here’s the author’s rooting guide table (with a note for language):
| Winner | Loser | Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | over | Redskins | The Eagles are no longer an obstacle and we need the Redskins to lose two games. It would be fantastic if one came here, as opposed to the Giants in W17. |
| Bears | over | Lions | I know it hurts to root for a division rival, but we really need the Lions to lose as many games as possible. If they lose this game they may start reeling again and go into a classic Detroit collapse. |
| Saints | over | Buccaneers | The Cheatin’ Saints let us down last week, but they can help make it up by knocking the Buccaneers down a peg on Sunday. If they manage to sweep them, we overtake them in the seeding. |
| Rams | over | Falcons | We need the Falcons to drop some games either to beat them in the divisional seedings (3 vs 4) or to keep them out of the Wild Card race. |
| Packers | over | Seahawks | Fuck the Packers. But they aren’t in our way at this point (assuming we beat them in W16). The chances of catching Seattle in seeding is slim to none (they would have to lose 3/4 games) so we should really just root for a tie or a meteor or something. But strictly numbers wise, we’re helped by a GB win here. |
| Cowboys | over | Giants | We need the Cowboys to do us a favour after last Thursday; hopefully they come through. It’s worth noting that even if you hate the Cowboys, it’s impossible for us to catch them in the seeds, so there is no benefit them to losing for us (and a lot of harm). |
This requires one to stomach cheering for the Packers, but that could be avoided if one cheers for the Seahawks this week and also a Week 16 win for the Vikings. It’s not set in stone.
