Timberwolves

FAKLIS: A Look Into the Suddenly Struggling Timberwolves

(photo credit: Jim Falkis)

After a stellar three-game start, with wins against presumed playoff teams and sound production in clutch situations, the Timberwolves looked like a team poised for a fun season.

Since then, Jimmy Butler has missed the last two games with an upper respiratory illness. In that time, the level of optimism surrounding this team has subsided a considerable amount.

On Tuesday, they went into a home game against the Indiana Pacers – a rebuilding team without its best player – with the expectation to win. Even after it was discovered that Butler wouldn’t play, they were expected to win by most accounts. They lost that game by 23.

The following day, they traveled to Detroit to take on the Pistons. While the Pistons are a better team than Indiana, the game was still winnable for the Wolves without Butler.

They lost that game by 21.

Five games into the NBA season, the sample size is too small to make any full-fledged judgments on this team. But these two games are concerning regardless of sample. With the exception of Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson and Jamal Crawford – all veterans who have played for multiple teams – the rest of the regular rotation played for Tom Thibodeau a year ago.

For them, the sample is much larger.

The fair and reasonable gut reaction is to blame the struggles on the absence of the three-time All-Star. The All-NBA guy. The “defensive specialist.” The on-court vocal leader of the team. Him being off the floor is absolutely going to hurt the team, but how much is that really contributing to the sudden downfall?

The stats indicate that, while Butler has been a key piece to the team’s success, he isn’t lightyears ahead of his teammates. When Butler is on the floor, the Timberwolves’ offensive rating is 104.1. When he is off the floor, it drops to 104.

Though, it’s defensively where the Wolves have seen the most visual struggles in Butler’s absence. And while the team’s defensive rating increases seven points per 100 possessions with Butler off the floor — 117 with him off the floor — his on-floor team defensive rating is a less-than-stellar 110.

But while the numbers may not suggest a major difference, the eye test tells a completely different story. In Butler’s first three games with the team, the Wolves’ defensive efforts have been at its best with him on the floor. It wasn’t just the toughness he displayed at home in his squabble with former Wolf Ricky Rubio. It was the ways he was using his toughness in a practical way to get steals on the defensive end. Even in his lone loss so far with the Wolves, he was making impacts and disrupting flow on the defensive end.

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More importantly than getting steals, and what has plagued the Wolves in the two losses since Butler’s absence, are closeouts and transition defense. In early games, especially with the starting five, the Timberwolves did a better job closing out defenders and getting out to protect transition baskets, the play above being just one example.

In the first three games, the Wolves gave up 43 fast-break points, and opponents shot 37.8 percent from 3-point land on 25 makes. In the two games that followed, they’ve given up 42 fast-break points and are allowing opponents to shoot 41.3 percent from deep on 24 makes.

It’s possible, and maybe even probable, that Butler’s absence plays a major role in that. But the players on the floor, who were there when Butler was putting up just 13.3 points per game with a below-average net rating, have changed the way they’ve played too. And it hasn’t been for the better.

Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled defensively since entering the league, and that hasn’t changed much early on in year three. Towns has faced mostly stellar competition this year at the center position, but he’s been mostly out of place when left on an island, or switched up on another defender. Whenever there’s lots of movement in the opposing offense, Towns tends to have his biggest struggles.

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This, of course, comes with the caveat of how impactful, smooth, and (at times) revolutionary Towns is on the offensive end. He possesses all the physical gifts that a great defensive player needs  – speed, quickness, a strong vertical, a high basketball IQ, a drive to improve – but hasn’t managed to put the pieces together yet. In his third season, the clock is ticking on how much time and leeway he’ll get from the general public before the panic button is hit for the future All-Star.

It’s not just Towns, either. The Timberwolves currently have the worst defensive rating in the NBA, and while the center position is often seen as the team’s defensive anchor, there’s only so much KAT can do. Blame still falls on the rest of the team. With Butler’s absence, it hurts even more.

Andrew Wiggins has felt his backcourt partner’s absence as well — but in a different way. With Butler on the floor, Wiggins has been free to match up against the opposing team’s second best wing defender. Even in the Oklahoma City win, where Wiggins was guarded by Andre Roberson in the fourth quarter after starting hot, he had gained enough confidence by then to finish the game strong and eventually notch a game-winner.

Without Butler, he hasn’t looked the same. Against Indiana, he scored a season-low 7 points and shot the ball poorly. While he bounced back and had 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting against Detroit, it wasn’t done with the same level of impact as the first three games. As Dane Moore described in his recap from Wednesday night, it felt much more like a “big stats on a bad team” night than anything else.

Wiggins has the ability to put up big numbers, even on stellar defenders, but his reliance on Butler’s presence seems prevalent to start the year. At the very least, it’s been a slow transition back to what he’s used to dealing with.

In fairness to Wiggins, he’s used to having Rubio as a point guard. In other words, he’s used to inhuman passes on the fast break and quick decisions in the half court. Jeff Teague was brought in because his scoring and shooting ability meshes better with that of Butler (and Towns and Wiggins, in an ideal world). So far, Teague hasn’t managed to find his footing in Minnesota.

Of the five games, his 19 points and eight assists against Oklahoma City is the one so far that stands out in a positive light. This is likely happening for a few reasons.

For one, he’s brand new to the team. A point guard’s transition from one system to another can often be the most difficult. While he’s familiar with playing off a wing primary ball handler – think Paul George in Indiana – playing with a player like Butler is still a change.

None of this is to suggest that Rubio should be here and Teague should not. With Butler going down, Teague is suddenly initiating offense for a group of guys that are used to playing with Ricky Rubio’s unique skillset. That is the second challenge Teague faces. Teague’s track record suggests that he’ll get out of this funk and impress Wolves fans soon enough, but so far, it hasn’t been an easy start to the season.

Since Butler went down with an illness, it hasn’t been easy for anyone. It’s impossible to pinpoint exactly what’s happening, and why they’re getting blown out by inferior on-paper competition. Ultimately it’s probably several things, of varying levels of importance, that need to be addressed by Thibodeau.

The three-game start was fun, and the last two games have been miserable. When Butler returns, things will almost certainly improve for the Timberwolves. But he can’t save them by himself. Everyone will have to step up.

There’s still lots of time. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen.


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