Most watchers of the Minnesota Timberwolves this season have noticed that the team struggles significantly in close games in the fourth quarter, and the stats back that up.
The Timberwolves are the worst fourth quarter team in the NBA by net rating, worse than the lowly Chicago Bulls. Recently, writers like ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz and Zach Lowe have noticed the trend and attributed it to coach Tom Thibodeau’s tendency to play his starters heavy minutes, causing tired legs on both ends of the floor.
While this is likely fair, is this a common trend for Thibodeau-coached teams? Thibodeau has long had the reputation for overplaying his best players, dating back to Joakim Noah and Luol Deng in Chicago, so the heavy minutes being played by Jimmy Butler (5th in the NBA in minutes per game), Andrew Wiggins (6th), Karl-Anthony Towns (19th), Jeff Teague (29th) and Taj Gibson (41st) are no surprise.
Thibodeau’s teams in Chicago were better than his one-plus year in Minnesota, that much is known. However, his teams were good-to-great in fourth quarters in his years in Chicago.
| Season | Team | Team Record | Overall NetRtg | Overall DefRtg | 4Q NetRtg | 4Q DefRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | Chicago | 62-20 | +8.1 (2nd) | 97.4 (1st) | +11.7 (1st) | 94.1 (1st) |
| 2011-12 | Chicago | 50-16 | +9.3 (1st) | 95.3 (1st) | +12.3 (1st) | 95.3 (1st) |
| 2012-13 | Chicago | 45-37 | +0.1 (15th) | 100.3 (5th) | -3.1 (22nd) | 101.9 (13th) |
| 2013-14 | Chicago | 48-34 | +1.9 (12th) | 97.8 (2nd) | +3.7 (9th) | 99.8 (3rd) |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | 50-32 | +3.3 (9th) | 101.5 (11th) | +7.3 (2nd) | 100.5 (3rd) |
| 2016-17 | Minnesota | 31-51 | -1.0 (20th) | 109.1 (26th) | -6.1 (28th) | 110.8 (25th) |
| 2017-18 | Minnesota | 15-11 | +0.8 (13th) | 108.1 (26th) | -12.5 (30th) | 115.2 (30th) |
In all of Thibodeau’s seasons in Chicago – other than 2012-13, the season after Derrick Rose tore his ACL – his teams were even better in the fourth quarter than they were overall. Could the fourth quarter drops in both last season and the beginning of this season be more attributed to the youth and inexperience of these Timberwolves’ teams than the minutes they have played?
It’s hard to argue that there is no relation between the short eight-man rotation of the past couple of weeks and some of the lost leads. The games against Detroit and Memphis both come to mind as games in which the starters looked lethargic as the runs came.
But more often, the offensive structure breaks down in addition to the defensive failings that come in all quarters.
The minutes played by the starting lineup do need to go down, and the hopeful return of Nemanja Bjelica in the near future should help. However, in many of the games the Timberwolves have won, they have needed every second that the starters, Butler and Gibson in particular, have played.
Even with their fourth quarter failings, the Timberwolves have still managed a positive record in games that have gone to clutch time (8-6, via stats.nba.com) and a positive record overall (16-11). They need to improve – the starters and the bench, who have struggled in recent weeks – to take the next step.
But for now, it’s hard to argue that the heavy minutes aren’t a necessity to win games.
Listen to David on Wolves Wired!
