Most of us can probably agree that the NCAA Tournament is basketball’s finest hour.
And for those of us who spend much of our time in a futile attempt to beat the juice, the best part of the tournament is the first round. Anyone can make an educated guess as to which teams will compete in the championship game. A couple of weeks ago I picked Virginia and Michigan State to play for the hardware, and I’m sticking to that selection, although it has started to be a bit too trendy for my comfort.
But in my eternal quest to lose with dignity, it’s the opening round that affords me the opportunity to pretend a deeper understanding of the mid-majors and beyond.
And for sheer frenzy and chaos — two words that have come to define daily life in our anxiety-ridden republic — nothing beats Round One. From noon to midnight on Thursday and Friday, the action is not just non-stop but overlapping. Consider the possibilities: 64 teams, 32 point spreads, four TV networks and, best of all, not even a whisper — as if there was such a thing — from Dick Vitale.
In its annual rueful press release, the American Gaming Association, which represents the nation’s casinos, estimates that $10 billion will be wagered on the tournament, but that, sadly, only a mere $300 million will be captured by the casinos. No wonder the $1.95 breakfast buffets of my college days now fetch $30.
Bugsy and Meyer must be rolling in their graves.
I’ve been betting on the tournaments every year since the mid-70s, and, while I hate to boast, there have been years when I’ve come close to breaking even. My predilection — “addiction” is such a harsh term — for betting on the tournament is so extreme that many years ago, when I was forced to travel to Hong Kong and missed all but the Final Four, I directed a friend to get down my bets with my bookie.
In order to decide my plays, I had him play the selections of a mutual friend who had been hot all season. What could go wrong? I was betting $30 a game, and I figured at worst I’d lose some vigorish. When I returned from Asia, I learned I was down about a grand.
But I learned my lesson: never leave the country during The Tournament.
That said, here are my favorite Round One plays:
Thursday
Oklahoma-Rhode Island: My only hesitation here is that the Sooners have become the most ridiculed team in the country. Even the crazed Sooner fans have abandoned their team faster than the Okies fled the Dust Bowl. The Sooners have lost eight of their last 10 games, leaving behind the suspicion that, with an 8-10 Big 12 record, they’re in the tournament only because of the marquee appeal of the nation’s leading scorer and assist man, Trae Young. Plus the Rams can put up 80 against Oklahoma’s shaky offense. The play: Rhode Island minus 2.
Wright State-Tennessee: Wright State won the underrated Horizon Conference with hostile defense. I can’t pick an outright win, but the Raiders will be an underdog darling that can keep it close while getting 12 1/2.
N.C. State-Seton Hall: Don’t look for any shot-clock violations in this one. Between them, there’s a good chance that these two will put up 135 shots, and that usually means games in the 80s. I lean toward the Pirates, who have a chance to make the Sweet 16, but I don’t feel like laying three points so I’m playing this one Over 157.
Friday
Just one play but it’s my favorite of the weekend: North Carolina-Lipscomb over 160. The Bisons — is that the plural of Bison? — wrapped up the Atlantic Sun tournament with a 108-96 victory over Florida Gulf Coast, a game in which FGCU got off 72 shots. If the Tar Heels don’t score 100, I probably won’t win this bet. But I think we’ll look back at this game fondly after Virginia defeats Michigan State 60-56 in the title game.
