So, after all the fuss, the whole thing was a sham. And boy, did those wise guys on Park Avenue have us fooled. We actually believed that the NFL was going to crack down on roughing-the-passer perpetrators. Maybe even catch up with the NCAA, which actually ejects players who try to inflict brain damage.
Sure enough, in the first three weeks of this season, 34 offenders were flagged for violating what turned out to be the very fluid restrictions. For a while there, flags were spawning like nematodes, so dramatically that it was the defenders, and not the quarterbacks, who were running for their life.
Purists said the game was being destroyed — you know, the old Pretty soon the qbs will be wearing tutus thing. Maybe they had a point. I have no idea, although I’m not sure how you can be a purist about a tradition that routinely inflicts hideous damages on the brains of athletes. Anyway, I happen to like lots of scoring and have never been tempted to queue up one of those “Most sickening hits of the week” videos. Maybe I’m just squeamish, but I see enough already-destroyed brains on the news channels.
Not that it matters. Because you don’t need to be a conspiracy theorist to think there was something funny about just two roughing penalties called on Week 4. C’mon. Coincidence or co-conspirators? — you make the call.
Or don’t. No, the NFL had proved its point. For two or three weeks, defensive players became absolutely weepy about this miscarriage of justice. The fans — mostly the fans of teams on the short end of the calls — were sullen and indignant. Why not? There are an awful lot of people these days who seemed to be convinced way beyond logic that they have a birthright to…something.
As for the NFL? I’m not sure. My guess is that the billionaire owners figure that more violence might help arrest the inevitable and unstoppable decline in ratings.
And now we can go back to enjoying the explosion of brain matter on any given Sunday. The NFL was just messing with us. CTE — a tradition unlike any other.
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Last week, my picks went 1-2-1. By bankroll, per Bob Sansevere’s podcast falls to slightly below my starting mythical cash of $1,000.
And on our Minnesota Line podcast, I pulled a bit ahead of my protégé Colton Molesky in our head-to-head competition — in large part due to his bad beat on the KC-Denver game. Colton had the bad fortune to take the Chiefs minus-4 1/2, a line that went up from-3 1/2 just in time for our Minnesota Line podcast, and for him to lose by a half point. After that, it went back to 3 1/2 — too late for Colton and just in time for me. I am, unlike other clowns, weeping on the outside and laughing on the inside. But not too loudly, because this is gambling, and good fortune never lasts.
So we go into Sunday with my Minnesota Line total at $1,160, meaning Colton sits at $840.
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The picks:
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Stay with me on this one. The Falcons are unstoppable on offense and helpless on defense, so the total here is an outrageous 57. As for Pittsburgh, its offense has been scary, but only in the first half. In the second half, my man Ben turns into his evil twin Ben Worthlessburger. Last week, Steel City watched in horror as Roethlisberger threw for 224 yards in the first half, but just 50 yards in the second half. Prompting Steeler Nation to ask in uniform: “Who are you?”
I’m not sure I can answer the question, but here’s what we know: the Steelers have now scored 72 points in the first halves of their four games, and just 30 points in the second halves, plus one ten-minute overtime. Is this a trend or an aberration? As for Matt Ryan, we’re looking at an average of 410 passing yards per game, while the Steelers rank 29th in pass defense.
The pick: Atlanta 38, Pittsburgh 30 — but, more importantly, I’m taking Over 28 1/2 in the first half for $40; and under 57 for the game, also for $40.
It’s what I refer to as an over-under reversal play. Sounds clever, but rarely is.
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Jacksonville at KC
One thing Denver demonstrated last week is that only pestilence and famine can stop KC, and even that is just a theory. Denver’s defensive speed was awe-inspiring but KC still amassed 446 yards of offense and scored 27 points. So KC can score big against anyone, but Jacksonville’s offense is underrated, even without Leonard Fournette. In fact, Fournette was a liability last week as he hobbled around on a damaged hamstring, gaining just 30 yards on 11 carries. (And the Jags crushed the hapless Jets 31-12.)
Blake Bortles is clearly healthier than he was all last season last year when he threw for over 300 yards just twice. This year he’s done it twice already. It’s also worth noting that Jacksonville’s offense wasn’t terrible in 2017. despite the fact that Bortles played with a bad shoulder all last year. (He had surgery in January.) They’ve scored at least 20 points in 21 of their last 26 games. A low bar, perhaps, except that the KC defense is ranked last in total defense (allowing nearly 452 yards per game).
The pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 27 — Over 49 for $50
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