The Fantasy Football Party: Week 15 DFS Analysis

Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

The Fantasy Football Party will post a values story every week at ZoneCoverage.com to help you set winning DFS lineups for the show listener league and all the other great games at FantasyDraft.com — our exclusive DFS partner for 2018!

Whether you’re getting in our weekly listener league for just $5 or playing for big money in tournaments like the Wishbone, Flea Flicker, or Pump And Go, you’ll want to take advantage of the value plays on the board at FantasyDraft.com this week. And that’s where we come in. Below are some of the players at each position who stand out one way or another on this week’s main slate (12 games) using the modeling tool at FantasyLabs.com.

All scoring projections/rankings are from their cash model for Week 15. If you’ve never played at FantasyDraft before, use the listener league link above and deposit at least $10 and you’ll automatically get a free $4 GPP ticket! And if you’re not a FantasyLabs subscriber, get half off a trial membership with the code 50OFF.

And now, on with the countdown…

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff vs. Philadelphia — $12,300

One of the toughest tenets of DFS for me to accept has been getting back in the saddle with a player coming off a bad game. But it makes sense: his price is sliding downward, and Joe Public is backing away. Goff fits that profile to a T this week after dribbling down his leg in prime time against the Bears. He’s not exactly cheap, but he’s not the most expensive quarterback in the slate either. And he has the luxury of bouncing back at home against a defense whose secondary is riddled with injuries. Philly just gave up 455 and three to Dak Prescott; prior to that, the Eagles were barely tested by JV quarterbacking like Eli Manning and a Colt McCoy/Mark Sanchez combo platter. Previous to that? A cool 363 and four to Drew Brees. If you accept that Goff is legit, he’s worth the cost in what should be a monster bounce-back opportunity.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon vs. Oakland — $11,400

The way backs like Gurley, Zeke, and Saquon have been piling up points this season I’ve been doing everything in my power to shoehorn two stud backs into my DFS lineups. With those backs priced between $16,300 and $17,400 this week, it won’t be easy. Fortunately, there are alternatives and topping that list is Mixon. He’s FantasyLabs’ No. 2 cash model value at running back, and not just because he’s a comfortable savings off the top-tier backs. Mixon has averaged 108 scrimmage yards in seven home games and even with the Bengals’ gutted by injury is averaging 129 combo yards per game over his last three outings. Facing an Oakland defense that’s surrendered six 100-yard rushers this season, including David Johnson and Gus Edwards in their last two road outings, Mixon is poised to deliver big-boy results at little-boy prices — just what your DFS lineup needs.

Dec 9, 2018; Carson, CA, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) carries the ball in the second quarter of the game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Dec. 9, 2018, at StubHub Center in Carson, California. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK

Jalen Richard at Cincinnati — $7,700

Let’s flip the script and go bargain shopping — all without leaving this game. No defense has given up more fantasy points to opposing backs than the Bengals, and even with Doug Martin turning back the clock to before he was busted for performance-enhancing medications Richard is still getting his touches. Last week he wasn’t nearly as efficient with his workload as the previous game, but Cincy should prove to be quite accommodating. He’s FantasyLabs’ No. 7 cash model value at running back, and at that rock-bottom price, it won’t take much for Richard to rock a solid ROI for your DFS lineup.

WIDE RECEIVER

Dante Pettis vs. Seattle — $8,700

Most of my favorite receiver values — the value-priced DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry, the dirt-cheap home-run swing of DaeSean Hamilton — aren’t on the Sunday slate because they play Saturday. And it’s far too easy to find reasons to back away from mid-tier guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Allen Robinson. So you can either load up on Rams receivers—which actually isn’t a bad idea — or toss a couple bargain-basement darts at the position. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll direct the first dart at Pettis, who has scored in three straight games — including 129 and two in Seattle a couple weeks ago. The 49ers can’t throw every pass to George Kittle, and Pettis is emerging as a regular downfield target for Nick Mullins.

December 9, 2018; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Dante Pettis (18) catches a touchdown pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Isaac Yiadom (41) during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Foster vs. Detroit — $8,400

Foster gets the other dart and a narrow nod over teammates Zay Jones and Isaiah McKenzie. Why? Because Foster has 94 yards or better in three of the last four games and caught seven of his eight targets last week. Plus Jones seems most likely to draw Darius Slay, which would leave Foster with even more room to operate. Hey, they’re dart throws for a reason.

TIGHT END

Kyle Rudolph vs. Miami — $6,900

You wanna talk dart throws? Try this one on for size. The Vikings just jettisoned their offensive coordinator, with one of the many reasons being his inability to work the team’s Pro Bowl tight end into the game plan. Rudy hasn’t scored since Week 3, hasn’t topped 72 yards all season, and has fallen all the way to roughly half the price of Zach Ertz. Minnesota’s new play-caller used to coach up Rudolph and the tight ends among his many gigs with the Vikings, and you have to believe it’s in his best interest to do things his predecessor did not do if he wants to cross the “interim” off his job title.

Nov 25, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers linebacker Reggie Gilbert (93) pushes Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph (82) out of bounds in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Miami has given up four tight end touchdowns in the last three weeks and a league-high nine for the season. At such a nice price Rudy’s worth a shot while you direct more funds towards other more reliable (and talent-laden) positions.

DEFENSE

Atlanta vs. Arizona — $5,300

The Falcons’ defense has been ravaged by injuries, but even that won’t prevent them from being a fantasy factor this week. The Cardinals haven’t topped 20 points in any of their last four road games and are fresh off of dropping a three-point clunker at home against the Lions. Atlanta is FantasyLabs’ top defensive value this week, giving you plenty of freedom to spend up elsewhere on your roster while remaining confident you’ll get some positive numbers from your defense.

There is an endless trove of additional data plus incredible tools for modeling, lineup building and more at FantasyLabs.com. If you play DFS, FantasyLabs will make you a better player. Use the code 50OFF to get half off a trial membership. And be sure to get in on the DFS fun at FantasyDraft! Start by joining the listener league for just $5. Good luck this week!

The Fantasy Football Party is recorded each week by John Tuvey, Bo Mitchell and Anthony Maggio. You can also find a story from one of the three each week right here at ZoneCoverage.com. Subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode by clicking here for iTunes or here for Android.

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