A harsh truth became apparent in the shadow of yet another dismal Andrew Wiggins performance in the season’s playoff finale. On the horizon of a daunting financial future that will pay Wiggins $25, $27, $29, $31 and $33 million annually through 2023, it became clear that the former number one overall pick has officially become the macro barometer of who the Wolves are and where the franchise will go.

The 2018 NBA playoffs only further drove this ideology home.

While Wiggins showed more consistency than any of Minnesota’s starters Games 1 through 3 of the playoffs (given Butler’s health and Towns’ shrinking against the Houston scheme) the 23-year-old finished the series in quintessential Wiggins form. His playoff performance only further illustrated what had already become a prevailing truth: The Wolves go as far as he does.

Minnesota’s Game 3 victory was the franchise’s crown jewel of the series and also, uncoincidentally, Wiggins’s best individual performance. It was the only game that he tallied multiple makes from deep (4), the only game he made more than half of his shot attempts (7-of-11) and the only game he turned in a positive net-rating.

Playoff Production of Andrew Wiggins

Game 3 was also Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns’ most impactful performance of the series.

Butler had his highest net-rating (+15.8), best shooting performance (10-of-19) and an excellent defensive showing on James Harden in that game.

For Towns, it wasn’t his best shooting performance of the five games but his overall activity — on both the offensive and defensive ends — were strides beyond any other game in the series. His discipline on defense and effective willingness to trust the offensive flow was the biggest reason for producing his best (and only positive) net-rating of the series.

It is unfair framing to give Butler and Towns a pass in the other four games but as more known commodities they do not serve as the same barometric tool that Wiggins does when we zoom out of the playoff series and into the bigger picture.

Ever since Tom Thibodeau signed on as head coach and President of Basketball Operations, the theme of Good Wiggins versus Bad Wiggins has been crystalizing. The Wolves have consistently thrived with Good Wiggins and struggled without him.

Andrew Wiggins ’16-17 + ’17-18 in Timberwolves Wins vs. Losses

Butler and Towns are more known commodities. While both fluctuate from a game-to-game scale, in the big picture they have better-defined identities. Jimmy is somewhere between All-Star and All-NBA — with questions surrounding his longevity due to health-related wear and tear. And Towns also falls in this All-Star to All-NBA phylum — with a potential for MVP-caliber play clouded by questions that surround his mental wherewithal (basketball IQ), manifesting in a high ceiling range with a fairly defined but high floor.

For Wiggins, his career better indicates that he is the volatile variable. As a player, Wiggins has a wider array of realities. His identity range remains broader, even dipping into the negative.

In ways, he has already been defined as a high volume, low-efficiency scorer with questions surrounding his effort and engagement. Yet, on the other side of the coin, lies an undeniable potential through his flashes of elite athleticism. On both ends of the floor, there is an effervescent tease to the idea that something more exists within him. These playoffs only further played into this fizz and also the simultaneous frustration.

Throughout the series, Wiggins sparked when he frequently attacked the bucket on offense and sat down in a defensive stance on the other side of the ball. But he also disappeared at times. Early on in the series, foul trouble would throw off Wiggins’ vigor and wrap him in that snuggly invisibility blanket of his. Games 4 and 5 he went full-Snuggie.

Herein lies the bipolar nature of one of the coolest cucumbers in the league off the floor. We know Engaged Wiggins is a dangerous and bad man. Someone we saw in this series (and always see against Cleveland) yet also a man that can feel more like a method actor than an authentic identity. This deviation leads to a gradient in the understanding of who Wiggins is.

Could he be the All-Star many have hoped for? Certainly. Could he just be Rudy Gay? Yeah, sure. Somewhere along the path of that gradient lies the true identity of Wiggins and thus the fate of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

If Wiggins trends towards being Gay, the Wolves have an insurmountable problem, if their aspiration is to contend at the highest of levels.

Even with a progression from Towns and sustained health and production from Butler, the Wolves do not have enough in just those two stars. These playoffs illustrated that they need a third. While it would feel comfortable to slide Wiggins down to the fourth or fifth option — a place the Wolves would almost assuredly find success — that is not an option.

Wiggins has to be Number Three because, well, who else would it be? Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson are even better-known commodities, Derrick Rose is still Derrick Rose despite a playoff percolation, and there just is no other player on the roster who can fill that void without making a quantum leap — unless the physically limited Tyus Jones or rookie Justin Patton (who is seven-feet tall and just had his second foot surgery in nine months) take a massive leap toward stardom.

The Wolves also cannot look elsewhere to shift Wiggins down to Option Four or Five because there is no way of acquiring that third option outside of the current roster. This is because Wiggins’ $146.5 million contract kicks in next season, and with it comes the baggage of no cap space.

The Wolves operating functionality is that of a team unable to add anyone beyond the caliber of the mid-level exception. Sure, striking gold with the MLE like Houston did with P.J. Tucker or how San Antonio did with Gay, ironically, would be great, but neither of those players — or any other MLE candidate — is a legitimate third option.

Why do the Wolves face this hellish cap situation? Because Towns and Butler are also soon to become very, very expensive. If the two receive the maximum money they are legally allotted by the league’s collective bargaining agreement (a safe assumption because, hell, Wiggins got it), the Wolves cap will be 85 percent committed to just Wiggins, Towns and Butler come 2019 — with raises coming annually.

Yes, the Wolves will have the freedom to exceed the salary cap and even enter the luxury tax if Timberwolves owner, Glen Taylor, so chooses. But, legally, the tax can only be tapped into through spending additional money on players already on the roster. Which is all to say: This is the core.

Financial Future With Butler, Towns, and Wiggins

So, What’s Next?

A firm thwapping on the wrist for every mid-range fadeaway would help, but that won’t be enough. Wiggins needs to perform a similar facelift on his offensive game to the one he placed on his defense this season — that did improve.

That facelift is a full-on rearrangement of shot selection and decision-making with and without the ball. Though Wiggins did decrease his volume of long-2s, still a fifth of his total volume came from no-no land. Not good.

He also needs to re-engage himself as a driver. His free-throw woes clearly played a role in his lack of desire to penetrate in 2017-18 and his sub-10 percent foul rate on drives suggests almost a phobia when compared to where he was.

Andrew Wiggins Shot Distribution

But even making these tweaks won’t be enough. The ball has to go through the bucket more frequently. Without a massive improvement on his 48.1 percent effective field goal percentage (12th on the team) he just can’t — I repeat: CAN NOT! — be the player who leads the team in field goal attempts again next season.

It’s a minor miracle — and maybe the biggest accomplishment on Thibodeau’s mantle — that the Wolves managed to have the league’s fourth-best offense given what was spewed out on a nightly basis from the starting shooting guard. Wiggins was so far below league average this season from almost everywhere on the floor that his season-long shot chart looks like someone got drunk with the red paint bucket in Photoshop.

Change has to come. He can’t be this player again next season. Better defining Wiggins’ identity and making sure it is somewhere skewed towards All-Star on his gradient should be the primary focus of the Timberwolves player development staff this summer.

But the reality seems that the solution for Wiggins is not one going to be found by getting in the gym but through putting in work between the ears. Something special still lies within him — we have all seen it. The flashes and the fizzles are real but harnessing that energy is mental. Wiggins’ grappling with the intellectual aspect of being a basketball player will not only define his future but the future of the entire franchise.

Dane Moore

Dane Moore is Zone Coverage's staff writer covering the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dane has been covering the Wolves in various capacities since the inception of the Tom Thibodeau era -- which was a really weird place to start his NBA writing career. You can find Dane's coverage of the Timberwolves and the NBA with Charlie Johnson at Zone Coverage and on The Dane Moore NBA Podcast. The goal is perpetuating a love of the game and elevating the basketball conversation -- because that's what Nikola Pekovic would want. (Will talk about jump hooks.)

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