A lot can change in a month and a half. When these two teams met at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 1, it was billed as a collision between division co-favorites. That feels like ages ago now for so many reasons. Way back then, the Minnesota Vikings still had Yannick Ngakoue on the roster, Anthony Barr was still playing, there was hope that Danielle Hunter’s neck “tweak” would only cost him three games, the first snow hadn’t fallen, the greatest guitarist of all time was still alive, etc.
Fast-forward seven weeks and the Green Bay Packers are clearly the class of the division and a serious Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, the Vikings are figuring out what to do with a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft and fielding calls on additional players to sell before Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline.
Of course, the Packers won that Week 1 game, 43-34 in a contest that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. In the weeks since then, the Vikings have seemingly regressed and Mike Zimmer may or may not be on the hot seat depending on your source. It’s not even totally clear that Packers fans are bothering to trash talk Vikings fans this week. It feels like misplaced energy.
So, do the upset-minded Vikings have an “October surprise” up their sleeves against the touchdown-favorite Packers? Eh, probably not – and not just because the game will technically take place in November. But let’s crack open a cold one and have a look at the latest chapter in the Border Battle anyway. Shall we?
THE BIG MATCHUPS
When previewing the Week 1 matchup seven weeks ago, I brought up the narrative that we had all been harping on since the Stefon Diggs trade. Specifically, the Vikings needed to find a viable threat opposite Adam Thielen – be it Justin Jefferson or someone else — for the Packers to game plan for rather than just sticking Jaire Alexander on Thielen and not worrying about anyone else. Quoting myself: “This could become a frequent storyline this season until Jefferson or someone else proves to be enough of a threat/adequate replacement for Stefon Diggs. Watch this space.”
We all watched this space. It didn’t happen in Week 1, but it didn’t take much longer for Jefferson to announce his presence on the NFL stage. The “frequent storyline” died quickly.
Heading into the rematch, three of the top four wide receivers based on Pro Football Focus grades will be on the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field: Thielen at No. 4, Davante Adams at No. 2 (more on him in a moment) and Jefferson at No. 1.
As for Alexander, he’s PFF’s No. 1 rated cornerback… which brings up an interesting question: Will the Packers stick Alexander on Thielen again, as they frequently (not exclusively) did in Week 1 or will they give us the No. 1 corner vs. No. 1 wide receiver matchup against Jefferson on occasion?
You’ll remember in that first game, both Alexander and Thielen had big moments. Alexander sacked Cousins for a safety and then intercepted him on a subsequent drive. On the other side, Thielen caught a few big gains against Alexander, including one of his two touchdowns – the second one that came from 19 yards out with only 1:21 left in the game and the outcome no longer in doubt. For the record, Thielen’s first touchdown of the game – the 37-yard strike earlier in the fourth quarter — came against Ka’dar Hollman.
Regardless of who Alexander lines up against, it should provide an entertaining and crucial subplot.
Leaning more on Thielen and Jefferson is vital even though it appears Dalvin Cook is on track to return from his groin injury. It’s unclear whether Cook will be on a pitch count, however. The same is true for his Packers counterpart Aaron Jones, who appears less likely to suit up due to his calf injury. Quite honestly, Green Bay probably would be better served to play it extra cautious with him so he’s ready for the playoff run rather than “waste” him against the Vikings.
The Vikings’ offensive line shuffling could continue this Sunday, as Pat Elflein is expected to return to action. Whatever combination they wind up using, they need to do a better job of protecting Kirk Cousins, or any success he has in finding Thielen and Jefferson will be relegated to garbage time again. The line actually did a solid job against the Packers in Week 1 outside of the safety. The main thing they did was hold Za’Darius Smith at bay, limiting him to one sack. It was a moral victory after Smith lit them up for 3.5 sacks, five tackles for loss and five quarterback hits in the second game between the Packers and Vikings last season.
PACKERS PLAYER TO WATCH
The only thing that can seemingly contain Adams is injury. Neither the Vikings nor the rest of the league has found an answer for Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver. Adams has played three full games and part of another one this season yet has four touchdowns – two against the Vikings in the opener and two last week against the Houston Texans. His 112.3 receiving yards per game leads the NFL.
Adams caught 14 of 17 targets in that Week 1 game against the Vikings, gouging them for 156 yards while finding success on every route on the tree. He was especially lethal going across the middle, and they had no defense for it. His first touchdown in the Week 1 game came against Holton Hill while the second one was with Anthony Harris in coverage. He made both look effortless. He also dropped a would-be touchdown on the goal line just prior to the safety against Cousins.
Adams now has three straight 100-yard games against the Vikings, and last week he just went berserk against Houston, reeling in 13 of 16 targets for 196 yards.
Complicating matters for the Vikings, they are without Cameron Dantzler due to COVID-19, and Mike Hughes, who is nursing a neck injury. They also won’t have the aforementioned Hill, who has a foot injury. Not that any of them figured to put the clamps on Adams this week, but at this point, it’s not even clear who will be lining up against him. And remember, the Vikings’ sack leader (Ngakoue) is now a member of the Baltimore Ravens.
In short, it’s not apparent how the Vikings are going to apply consistent pressure on Rodgers, nor who they’ll find to attempt to contain Adams. Other than that, they should be fine, right?
At $8,800, Adams is the single most expensive player on Draft Kings this week, regardless of position. He costs $600 more than the next player, Alvin Kamara. The fantasy football sharpies know a mismatch when they see one.
KEY STATS
In looking for a silver lining to the Vikings’ defensive woes this season, some have pointed to the fact that they are once again having success at stopping teams on third downs just like the vintage Zimmer defenses. Heading into play this weekend, the Vikings defense ranks third in third-down conversion defense at 33.8% behind only the Bears (31.7%) and Dolphins (31.3%).
Not to be a wet blanket, but… those numbers are a little deceptive.
Teams have been doing enough damage on first and second downs against the Vikings that they often don’t even require third down to earn a fresh set of downs. Only three teams have allowed fewer third-down attempts this season than the Vikings (71). Furthermore, teams are 9-for-11 on fourth downs against the Vikings. They’ve forced 17 punts – tied for third-fewest in the NFL.
Oh, and the only team that’s had good success against the Vikings on third downs this season have been the Packers, who went 6-for-11 on third downs in Week 1.
