Vikings

Is the Vikings Dependence on Dalvin Cook Sustainable?

Photo Credit: Brad Rempel (USA Today Sports)

On Sunday the Minnesota Vikings rode Dalvin Cook in one of their most efficient offensive performances ever. Yes, ever.

If not for a fruitless final pass on 4th and 1 inside of two minutes remaining — hey, why not just kick the field goal? — the Vikings would have logged over 9.0 yards per play for the first time as a franchise. Kirk Cousins fired incomplete to Adam Thielen, and the Vikings had to settle at 8.85, still their third-best of all time.

Most teams that gain almost 500 total yards of offense are reliant on their passing attack. Not the Vikings on Sunday, who rushed it 34 times for 275 yards and passed it 20 times for 220. Only 14 teams in history have delivered a better yards per play with as many rushing attempts as they had against the Lions in their 34-20 win.

For just the ninth time ever, the Vikings averaged over 8.0 yards per carry in a game. Cook went over 200 individually for the first time, and Detroit would prefer never to see Cook again. He’s gone for 6.1 yards per carry in six career games against the Lions, but Sunday’s outing stood above the rest. It was personally historic for Cook, and it nearly was for the team. This comes one week after Cook set a career high with four touchdowns, and the Vikings scored on their first four possessions against the Green Bay Packers.

Cook’s two-game stretch with 478 total yards has been enough to propel the Vikings past two division rivals. Somehow, a running back already known for his game-changing ability is raising the bar. Cook is no longer the third piece behind Stefon Diggs and Thielen. He is numero uno in the offensive pecking order. His predecessor Adrian Peterson, who was there to witness the Vikings’ first 200-yard rushing performance since he accomplished it in 2015, called Cook a “lethal weapon” this week.

“Just turning it loose,” Cook said after the game. “Just trying to do it all for my team to get a win. Obviously, we started this thing behind the 8-ball. And like I said last week, we lost some games that we wasn’t supposed to lose, and we know that. We’re just trying to play catch-up, and I’m just trying to give my team a fighting chance. You’ve got to commend the guys up front: receivers, tight ends, my whole o-line, fullback — all those guys, man, for making this thing open for me to hit some holes and get some daylight out there.”

Cook is currently putting up Peterson numbers circa 2012, which is what the Vikings have resembled the last two games. Cousins is a far more competent quarterback than Christian Ponder, but the intense dependence on the run is similar. Those Vikings won their final four games on Peterson’s back to reach the playoffs, a scenario they may find themselves in again if they’re able to even their record in the next several weeks.

The once 1-5 Vikings remarkably have momentum at the halfway point after sneaking quietly past the trade deadline without dismantling the team. But is Cousins throwing it 20 times or less a reasonable expectation going forward? Probably not. Cousins had only tossed it 20 times or less in victory once in his Vikings career before Week 8.

Now he’s done it twice in a row.

“You’re just going to have fewer attempts, which is a good thing, if you will, because we’ve been able to be explosive with those fewer attempts and still be able to move the football,” Cousins said about the run-pass balance when Cook is so effective. “It also keeps us from having to drop back all the time, which I think defenses want to be able to rush the passer. Anytime you can run the football it really gives you your entire offense, and you’re able to kind of control the situation, so it’s a real positive.”

The Vikings won’t run into many more defenses as porous as Detroit’s. Cook shed Lions tacklers at will with 166 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. If anything, Cook’s latest surge will create eight- and nine-man boxes — another Peterson callback. Vikings teams of old didn’t have the quarterback play to capitalize when defenses poured extra resources into stopping the run, but this club might. After watching eight games of film, opponents may deem the Vikings easier to beat when forced the throw. Cousins is having his most mistake-prone season yet, on pace for 20 interceptions, even with the emerging Justin Jefferson at his disposal.

Of course, game flow has everything to do with the Vikings’ ability to run. They’ve been fortunate not to trail in the second half for two straight weeks, which has kept rushing plays on the table for a full four quarters.

“The flow of the game, when you have a two-score, three-score lead, it’s a different game than when you’re trailing by three scores,” said Cousins, who’s thrown eight interceptions when trailing this season. “That’s just a completely different offense you’re putting on the field and the way you have to play. I think it’s hard to compare those games when they’re totally different types of games being played.”

There are more considerations than simply Cook and Cousins. The defense has to get stops; they’ve done that two straight weeks. The offensive line has to make blocks, which they have.

If the stars keep aligning, the Vikings can keep playing Zimmer Ball. But what happens when they’re forced to lean on the passing game again? Week 3 provides a cautionary tale, when Cook ran for 181 yards but the Vikings still lost 31-30 and reverted to “chaos” — Zimmer’s word — when forced to throw at the end.

Nonetheless, the Vikings feel as good as a 3-5 team could heading into the second half of the year, starting with a Monday night tilt against the Bears.

“You talk about confidence, and you talk about just building from last week,” Cook said. “Those guys up front, they’re going to go home today with a lot of confidence that we can run the football. And that’s what it’s all about with me: giving those guys up front, and my guys that are blocking for me, a lot of confidence. And we’ve got that confidence going into Monday Night Football.”

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Photo Credit: Brad Rempel (USA Today Sports)

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